Youth's Daily Activities and Situational Triggers of Gunshot Assault in Urban Environments

Abstract

Purpose Although previous research has made progress in identifying individuals predicted to face an elevated risk of being shot, it is not clear how that risk varies within individuals based on the contexts they encounter as they navigate daily life. The current study examines how the convergence of individual risk activity and neighborhood disadvantage and disorder triggers the risk of being shot. Methods Using a novel geographic information system (GIS) application, 123 male gunshot assault victims between 10–24 years old in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania described their minute-by-minute movements over the course of the day of the gunshot assault. Through latent class analysis, the primary exposure was real-life circumstance where nine theoretically informed risk factors converged, compared with two other circumstances. Case-crossover analyses of subjects’ 10-minute segments of full-day activities compared gunshot assault victims at the time of assault with themselves earlier in the day. Results Compared to when individuals were exposed to minimal situational risk or were mainly exposed to neighborhood disadvantage and disorder, the concurrence of risk activity and neighborhood disadvantage and disorder was associated with a 9.90 (95%CI: 2.72–36.14) and 6.06 (95% CI: 2.78–13.22) times higher risk of being shot. Importantly, the likelihood of being in the high-risk circumstance increased systematically over the course of the day leading up to the time when young individuals were shot. Conclusions After controlled individual’s propensity to be shot (e.g. inherent traits), the concurrence of situational risks emerged as significant triggers of gunshot assault. The findings suggest potential for community-based gunshot violence interventions.

Prevention of Firearm Injuries Among Children and Adolescents

“…Research that extends beyond individual-level factors to include risk assessment across multiple ecological levels, with a focus on the intersection between family, peer, and communitylevel factors, is also needed. Most research beyond the individual level has focused on peers and families, 22,23 with community factors lacking. 22,23 The few community studies that have addressed more macro-level issues such as neighborhood socioeconomic variables have not focused on social relationships (eg, social capital and neighborhood monitoring).…”

“…Most research beyond the individual level has focused on peers and families, 22,23 with community factors lacking. 22,23 The few community studies that have addressed more macro-level issues such as neighborhood socioeconomic variables have not focused on social relationships (eg, social capital and neighborhood monitoring). Only 2 studies have examined the intersection of peer relationships with community macrolevel variables.…”

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on the Epidemiology and Mortality of Pediatric Firearm Injuries; A Single Center Study

“…However, other factors such as COVID-19-induced economic crisis and subsequently increased neighborhood violence/crime rates may have played a more significant role in elevating pediatric firearm assaults/homicides. The elevated rates of pediatric firearm assaults/homicides is likely the result of a combination of increased intentional assaults as well as increased frequency of innocent children injured as bystanders amidst adult crime [ 13 , [26] , [27] , [28] , [29] ]. The current ICD coding system does not clearly convey the intended target of a firearm assault, and some have called for revisions to the current ICD coding system for this reason [30] .…”

Do structural choice theory and the ‘risky lifestyles’ perspectives predict immunity as well as victimization? A test using zero-inflated mixed-effect SEM analyses of adolescent victimizations in South Korea

“…As one example, our measures of guardianship relied heavily on parental monitoring, but most of the victimization incidences occurred outside the home and, possibly, outside the neighborhood. Much prior research has indicated that capable guardians out in the community (Dong et al, 2017;Reynald, 2009Reynald, , 2010 can moderate individual risk even in highrisk environments. If we had more specific measures of guardianship (and guardianship intensity) in the community, we might have found the protective effect of guardianship against victimization that has been seen in previous literature.…”