Wpływ pandemii COVID-19 na przetwórstwo spożywcze i eksport rolno-spożywczy Polski Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food processing and Polish agri-food exports

Abstract

Wirus SARS-CoV-2 zaczął się rozprzestrzeniać na całym świecie już kilka tygodni po jego wykryciu. Wszyscy są zaniepokojeni skutkami, jakie może spowodować pandemia COVID-19 wywołana przez ten wirus. Celem artykułu jest ocena wpływu pandemii na sektor przetwórstwa spożywczego i eksport rolno-spożywczy Polski. W opracowaniu przedstawiono uwarunkowania sytuacji, w jakiej znalazł się polski sektor spożywczy w przededniu pandemii, zanalizowano niektóre dane produkcyjno-finansowe i handlowe za kilka miesięcy jej trwania oraz wskazano ewentualne następstwa pandemii i możliwe kierunki zmian w sektorze. Z analizy wynika, że sektor dość dobrze radzi sobie z kryzysem wywołanym przez pandemię COVID-19. Skutkiem pandemii nie powinna być duża fala upadłości i bankructw przedsiębiorstw, a jedyną negatywną konsekwencją może się okazać czasowe spowolnienie rozwoju sektora, głównie w wyniku wahań dynamiki wzrostu polskiego eksportu rolnospożywczego. Rosnący popyt w kraju i za granicą oraz wciąż niższe w porównaniu z innymi krajami koszty produkcji w Polsce pozwalają na utrzymanie tendencji wzrostowej produkcji i eksportu produktów rolno-spożywczych, a co za tym idzie wciąż dobrą kondycję sektora. Odpowiednia polityka gospodarcza i zaangażowanie przedsiębiorców mogą również pomóc utrzymać dotychczasowy poziom rozwoju polskiego sektora żywnościowego. Słowa kluczowe: eksport rolno-spożywczy, pandemia COVID-19, przemysł spożywczy, wirus SARS-CoV-2. The SARS-CoV-2 virus began to spread worldwide just weeks after its detection. Everyone is concerned about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by this virus. This article aims to assess the impact of the pandemic on the food processing sector and Polish agri-food exports. The article outlines the determinants of the situation in which the Polish food sector found itself at the eve of the pandemic, analyzes some production, financial and commercial data gathered during several months of its duration, and indicates possible consequences of the pandemic and potential directions of changes in the sector. The analysis shows that the sector is coping fairly well with the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic should not result in a massive wave of business insolvencies and bankruptcies, and the only negative consequence may be a temporary slowdown in the sector’s development, mainly due to fluctuations in the growth dynamics of Polish agri-food exports. The growing demand in Poland and abroad and the still lower production costs in Poland compared to other countries allow for the maintenance of the upward trend in the production and export of agri-food products, and thus the continued favorable condition of the sector. Appropriate economic policy and the involvement of entrepreneurs may also help maintain the current level of development of the Polish food sector. Keywords: agri-food exports, COVID-19 pandemic, food industry, SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Sustainable Food Systems: Lessons Learned for Public Policies? The Case of Poland

“…Over the last three decades food sector in Poland was under process of dynamic modernisation and concentration thanks to foreign direct investments (FDI) as well as financial support from the EU founding [32]. In 2019, within this segment of the economy operated over 16,9 thousand enterprises, mainly micro and small units.…”

“…As a result, the Polish food sector became an important, efficient, export-oriented branch of the national economy with a significant contribution to the national global output (in 2018, the sector's share in GDP amounted to 3.2%) and to the employment (336 thousand persons employed in 2019) (Table 1). From 2004 to 2019, Polish export of food products grew six times, from EUR 5.2 to 31.5 billion [32]. In 2019, the positive balance of trade in agri-food products stood at EUR 10.5 billion [32].…”

“…From 2004 to 2019, Polish export of food products grew six times, from EUR 5.2 to 31.5 billion [32]. In 2019, the positive balance of trade in agri-food products stood at EUR 10.5 billion [32]. When it comes to food system distribution, Poland is in the process of increasing concentration of companies toward the emergence of large retail units, with the number of small stores decreasing by about 5% per year [33].…”

Polish Foreign Trade of Agricultural and Food Products During the Covid-19 Pandemic

“…The second important aspect of the vulnerability of agriculture to global crises is the level of internationalization of the agri-food sector itself. According to the research, the share of exports in sold production of the food industry is estimated at 44% [Szczepaniak et al 2020]. This proves the large production potential of this sector, which significantly exceeds the needs of the domestic market.…”

“…This was due to the situation on the global grain market, as well as the exchange rate of the Polish zloty, which was favorable for exporters [Bułkowska 2021]. The continuing competitive advantages are also important, including lower production costs compared to other developed countries, thanks to which the demand for Polish products increases domestically and abroad [Szczepaniak et al 2020].…”