World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010

Levitus, Sydney; Antonov, John I.; Boyer, Timothy P.; Baranova, O; Garcia, Hernan E.; Locarnini, R. A.; Mishonov, Alexey V.; Reagan, James R.; Seidov, Dan; Yarosh, E. S.; Zweng, Melissa M.

doi:10.1029/2012gl051106

Cited by 923 publications

(1,033 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(26 reference statements)

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“…The observational estimate used is a combination of Domingues et al (2008, v.3.1; 0-700 m), Levitus et al (2012, downloaded 7 February 2014700-2000 m), and Purkey and Johnson (2010; below 2000 m; 0.1 mm yr 21 ). Although there are other estimates available for the upper 700 m, such as Levitus et al (2012) and Ishii and Kimoto (2009), these estimates fall well within the uncertainty range presented by Domingues et al (2008) and would not lead to different results (Slangen et al 2014b). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

et al. 2015

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Changes in Earth's climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

et al. 2015

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“…1f. It is based on density, with temperature and salinity values from the World Ocean Atlas (Levitus et al 1994). …”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, and e density with a variable threshold criterion equivalent to a 0.2 °C decrease (DReqDTm02). f Naval Research Lab (Kara et al 2003) annual mean mixed layer depth climatology constructed using monthly mean temperature and salinity climatologies from the World Ocean Atlas (Levitus et al 1994) and a density criterion Fig. 2 Climatologies F NET , the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean, from the a GODAS, b GECCO2, c ORA-S3, and d ORA-S4 ocean reanalyses, and the e NCEP2, f NCEP1, g ERAI, and h JRA-55 atmospheric reanalyses.…”

Section: External Forcing Factors Of the Ocean Reanalysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1), and fresh water flux values from atmospheric reanalyses. We neglect fresh water fluxes here because of their uncertainty in reanalyses and because halosteric trends in density are smaller than thermosteric trends (Durack and Wijffels 2010;Levitus et al 2012) and examine the momentum and heat fluxes that are applied to the ocean reanalyses. , and e density with a variable threshold criterion equivalent to a 0.2 °C decrease (DReqDTm02).…”

Section: External Forcing Factors Of the Ocean Reanalysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

2017

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“…The interested reader is referred to a detailed yet accessible text entitled Atmosphere, Clouds, and Climate (Randall 2012) for more information. (Bony et al 2006) and transport of heat from the atmosphere to the ocean that drives a long term rise in the temperature of the world's oceans (Levitus et al 2012).…”

Section: Empirical Model Of Global Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Global Warming

et al. 2017

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This chapter provides an overview of the factors that will govern the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the rest of this century. We evaluate GMST using two approaches: analysis of archived output from atmospheric, oceanic general circulation models (GCMs) and calculations conducted using a computational framework developed by our group, termed the Empirical Model of Global Climate (EM-GC). Comparison of the observed rise in GMST over the past 32 years with GCM output reveals these models tend to warm too quickly, on average by about a factor of two. Most GCMs likely represent climate feedback in a manner that amplifies the radiative forcing of climate due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) too strongly. The GCM-based forecast of GMST over the rest of the century predicts neither the target (1.5 °C) nor upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement will be achieved if GHGs follow the trajectories of either the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 or 8.5 scenarios. Conversely, forecasts of GMST conducted in the EM-GC framework indicate that if GHGs follow the RCP 4.5 trajectory, there is a reasonably good probability (~75 %) the Paris target of 1.5 °C warming will be achieved, and an excellent probability (>95 %) global warming will remain below 2.0 °C. Uncertainty in the EM-GC forecast of GMST is primarily caused by the ability to simulate past climate for various combinations of parameters that represent climate feedback and radiative forcing due to aerosols, which provide disparate projections of future warming.

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World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010

Cited by 923 publications

References 22 publications

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

Forecasting Global Warming

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