Words of swords in the Caucasus: About a leading indicator of conflicts.

Hogenraad, Robert; Garagozov, Rauf

doi:10.1080/10781910903479594

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Confirmation of a likely war occurred, for example, in our analysis of the Anglo-American intervention in Iraq using the speeches of President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair from 11 September 2001 to 20 March 2003 (Hogenraad, 2005). We also confirmed a likely war in the analysis of the speeches that preceded the military confrontation between Georgia and Russia of August 2008 (Hogenraad and Garagozov, 2010). Over the year 2008, the risk of war was increasing in the speeches of President Medvedev of Russia.…”

supporting

confidence: 71%

Textual fingerprints of risk of war

Hogenraad

Garagozov²

2013

Literary and Linguistic Computing

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We compute the rate of textual signals of risk of war recognizable in series of consecutive political speeches about a disputed issue serious enough to entail an international conflict. The speeches concern Iran's nuclear program. We trace textual signals forewarning of risks of war that reactions to this affair lead to. The thrust of the textual analysis rests on the interplay of affiliation and power words in continuous texts, following D. C. McClelland's model for anticipating wars. The speeches are those of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, US Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton, Iranian Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Prefiguring a military confrontation before it occurs involves structuring information from unstructured data. Despite such imperfect knowledge, by the end of January 2012, our results show a receding risk of war on the Iranian side, but an increasing risk on the American one, while remaining ambiguous on the Israeli one.

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confidence: 71%

Textual fingerprints of risk of war

Hogenraad

Garagozov²

2013

Literary and Linguistic Computing

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“…The Kennedy Tapes are conversations (Oct 16, 11:50 am to Oct 29, 10:10 am) held by President Kennedy's Executive Committee (EXCOMM) during the Cuban Missile Crisis while the risk of war was at the top from the first days of the crisis. We analyzed this data set at the time (Hogenraad 2014) for the risk of war, using the "Motive Dictionary" (Hogenraad 2005, Hogenraad andGaragozov 2010), a computerreadable dictionary of affiliation (nAff) and power (nPow) words. McClelland (1975) motivational roots of conflicts rest on the gap between nPow and nAff words.…”

Section: Corpora: Fictions and Othersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fear in the West: a sentiment analysis using a computer-readable “Fear Index”

Hogenraad

2018

Qual Quant

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We tune in on fear to make it visible and detect its drifts. We collect verbal signals of coming fear burrowed in the crackles of political and other speeches by leading figures: Familiar words people use to express fear. From the EmoLex database (Mohammad and Turney in Comput Intel 29(3):436-465, 2013), we develop a computer-readable "Fear Index" to chase fear in the West. We aim a view from above to see how fear has changed, or hasn't. We first look how valid is the "Fear Index" on texts (fearful novels and historical documents) expected to display specific profiles of fear. Then trace the trend fear follows in speeches of European leaders. The "Fear Index" decreases in the speeches and documents of European political and economic spheres (President Donald Tusk-European Council-, President Mario Draghi-European Central Bank-, and the Global Trade Alert agency). The "Fear Index" spirals upwards among humanitarian leaders (Pope Francis, the Archbishop Justin Welby, and the International Committee of the Red Cross). We record no significant change in the trend of the "Fear Index" in the speeches of President Vladimir Putin. Humanitarian and political leaders changing in counterpoint prompt questions about empathy, or lack of that, in a now bipolar West. Keywords Sentiment analysis• Fear index • Computer-readable dictionaries • Western history of now • Computer-aided content analysis * Robert Hogenraad

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“…Among them the following ones are worth noting: globalization (Sloterdijk, 2013); the development of increasingly lethal technologies; the financial crisis of 2008; inequality of wealth (Milanovic, 2016); and the increasing lack of "common human decency" (Orwell, 2001). Wars (Broch, 1996), invasions, territorial alterations (Hogenraad, 2016, Kershaw, 2016Hogenraad & Garagozov, 2010), demographical shifts (Jameson, 2016), terrorism, and corruption (Delumeau, 1990) are all threatening stability. As a Belgian psychologist noted, it looks as if we are entering a new historical period, as yet unnamed, without a compass (Hogenraad, 2017), but it is undeniable that the key challenge is providing security.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Psychological security as the foundation of personal psychological wellbeing (analytical review)

Zotova¹,

Karapetyan²

2018

Psych. Rus.

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Background. Security as a socio-cultural phenomenon requires a comprehensive approach and integrates a multitude of aspects of social reality, each of which is important both for an individual and society as a whole. It has been shown that there are certain universal desires and needs which are valued by all cultures and peoples as essential to providing a high quality of life; one of such universals is the need for security. Consequently, the status of people's security in a society directly depends on the processes taking place in the society as a whole, and a craving for security and the need for it act as powerful stimulators of social changes.Aim. A theoretical analysis of studies on psychological security as a socio-cultural phenomenon.Method. Sources were selected according the following principles of scientific cognition: development, systematicity, and determinism.Result and discussion. It has been shown that, on the one hand, an individual's security is the result of an effective political, economic, social, and cultural environment. On the other hand, a society's security is a combination of individual people's security. It has been proved that the strengthening of a society's psychological security is key to achieving the wellbeing of different categories of people.It has been demonstrated that security is a dynamic process, since at every point in time we are dealing with a new type of danger. As a result, psychological security must constantly be created all over again. The latent character of security is shown by the fact that a person starts to strain after it only when an actual threat to life, health, and wellbeing emerges. What's more, the use of an interdisciplinary approach (psychological and sociological, in particular) appears to be the most fruitful, especially with regard to such latent phenomena as security and wellbeing.It has been shown that all aspects of human behavior in all spheres of life can be interpreted in the context of both the sense of security and actual security, and in most cases it is the need for security that guides man's action. It has also been demonstrated Psychological security as the foundation of personal psychological wellbeing… 101 that people's perceptions and assessment of their state of security are psychological processes, and thus, they are exposed to individual and group differences.Modern research has shown that, in the modern world, the link between a sense of wellb eing and sense of security is drawing increasing attention. Yet it should be noted that there is a tendency to interpret the concept of security restrictively as protection from harm and satisfaction of basic needs. In other words, the idea that psychological wellbeing and security are complementary and mutually conditioned concepts has not been dealt with so far.

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Words of swords in the Caucasus: About a leading indicator of conflicts.

Cited by 8 publications

References 31 publications

Textual fingerprints of risk of war

Textual fingerprints of risk of war

Fear in the West: a sentiment analysis using a computer-readable “Fear Index”

Psychological security as the foundation of personal psychological wellbeing (analytical review)

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