Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment

Wang, J.; Botterud, Audun; Bessa, Ricardo J.; Keko, Hrvoje; Carvalho, Leonel; Issicaba, Diego; Sumaili, Jean; Miranda, Vladimiro

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.04.011

Cited by 302 publications

(187 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The same methodology has been implemented in [19] with detailed representation of high voltage DC transmission system. The aim of [20] is to prove that applying a quantified method while dealing with intermittent resources increases the reliability [21] for modeling the uncertainty of the ST intermittent resources generation prediction. The model presented in this paper completes the coordination procedure of [6] by introducing an appropriate approach for GENCOs to achieve the determinate number of outage plans for the ST period.…”

Section: Literature Review and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

et al. 2013

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a b s t r a c tIn the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

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Section: Literature Review and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

et al. 2013

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“…Similarly, the annual generation model of a renewable DG (RDG) r is obtained by the historical generation data. The model can also be obtained by computing the potential power output by properly combining historical meteorological data and the hardware unavailability [16][17][18] (that is the forced outage rate, usually known as FOR [19]). Table 2 shows an example of annual generation model for a renewable generator.…”

Section: Annual Model Of Loads and Distributed Generatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Islanding and Telecontrolled Switches on Distribution System Reliability Considering Load and Green-Energy Fluctuations

et al. 2016

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Abstract:To improve electrical distribution network reliability, some portions of the network could operate in autonomous mode, provided that the related technical issues are addressed. More specifically, when there is not a path from those portions to the primary substation due to a fault in the network, such portions could be disconnected from the main network and supplied by local generation only. Such a mode of operation is known as "intentional islanding" and its effectiveness, in terms of adequacy, depends on the ability of the local generation to meet the island's load. In fact, the ratio between the available local generation and load demand can frequently change during islanding due to load variations and, especially, due to the strongly irregular behavior of the primary energy sources of renewable generators. This paper proposes an analytical formulation to assess local generation adequacy during intentional islanding, accounting for the aforementioned variations. More specifically, the fluctuations of load and green-energy generators during islanding are modeled by means of Markov chains, whose output quantities are encompassed in the proposed analytical formulation. Such a formulation is used by the analytical equations of load points' outage rate and duration. The evaluation of the reliability indices accounts for a protection scheme based on an appropriate communication infrastructure. Therefore, a brief overview on the telecommunications technologies has been presented with reference to their suitability for the specific application. In particular, distribution network safety issues have been considered as the main concern. The results show that neglecting load and generation fluctuations leads to a strong overestimation of the ability of distributed generators to meet the island load. Through a case study it is observed that the error on the load point outage rate is greater than the one affecting the outage duration.

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“…However, the inherent uncertainty and variability of WPG requires a system operator for stable power system operations [2]. One of the fundamental decisions related to the uncertain nature of WPG and load demand is unit commitment (UC), which the system operator assesses one day before the operating day [3]. The purpose of UC is to determine the set of generators that should be run to accommodate available energy and minimize the total operating costs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Considering Maintenance Cost in Unit Commitment Problems

Park

et al. 2017

Energies

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Electric power systems worldwide are receiving an increasing volume of wind power generation (WPG) because of environmental concerns and cost declines associated with technological innovation. To manage the uncertainty of WPG, a system operator must commit sufficient conventional generators to provide an appropriate reserve. At times, frequent start and stop operations are applied to certain generators, which incurs maintenance costs associated with thermal-mechanical fatigue. In this paper, we suggest a comprehensive approach to unit commitment (UC) that considers maintenance cost: the parameters of equivalent start (ES) and equivalent base load hours (EBHs) are adopted in the UC problem to determine optimal generation scheduling. A new formulation for the maintenance cost that can be readily combined with an existing mixed integer linear programming algorithm is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed UC method is verified through simulations based on an IEEE 118-bus test system. The simulation results show that considering maintenance cost in the UC problem effectively restricts frequent start and stop operation scheduling. Furthermore, the operating cost is reduced, the required reserve level is maintained, and the computational time is comparable with that of the conventional UC method.

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Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment

Cited by 302 publications

References 20 publications

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

Effect of Islanding and Telecontrolled Switches on Distribution System Reliability Considering Load and Green-Energy Fluctuations

Considering Maintenance Cost in Unit Commitment Problems

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