Will COVID‐19 hinder or aid the transition to sustainable urban mobility? Spotlight on Portugal’s largest urban agglomeration

Abstract

This study discusses the possible effects of two major COVID‐19 disruptions – that is, the widespread adoption of working from home and the ‘bio‐security’ fear affecting public transport – on travel patterns in Lisbon urban agglomeration. Drawing on evidence from the literature on the effects of teleworking on travel demand and the determinants of public transport, together with the analysis of travel data before and during the pandemic, the study concludes that the pandemic may hinder, more than aid, the transition to a sustainable mobility paradigm in Lisbon and its metropolitan area. The analysis of monthly travel demand shows that car use has recovered at a faster rate than public transport use, reaching pre‐pandemic levels in some of the main arterial roads serving Lisbon. There appears to be a substitution of public transport trips by both driving and active micromobility. The main losers so far are public transport operators: the pandemic increased operating deficits and the need for additional public subsidies, putting at risk the future financial sustainability of public transport. Without serious commitment by local and national governments, the pandemic is likely to be another missed opportunity to transition to a better, more sustainable, urban mobility system.

On the bumpy road to recovery: resilience of public transport ridership during COVID-19 in 15 European cities

“… 2021 ; Jenelius and Cebecauer 2020 ; Wielechowski et al. 2020 ; Melo 2022 ; Rasca et al. 2021 ; Jiang and Cai 2022 ).…”

Studying the Interrelationship between Telecommuting during COVID-19, residential local accessibility, and active travel: a panel study in Montréal, Canada

“…One of the most relevant aspects in the evolution of mobility patterns throughout the pandemic is that reduction in travel flows has not been uniformly distributed across transport modes (Pereira et al 2021). While public transit has suffered steep declines in ridership (Tirachini and Cats 2020), the use of private vehicles for various purposes has nearly recovered compared to pre-pandemic levels (Melo 2022). Within this context, since the beginning of the pandemic, it has been speculated that COVID's impacts on mode split can be an opportunity for increasing the use of active modes, such as walking and cycling (Nurse and Dunning 2020).…”

“…Since the beginning of the pandemic, it has been speculated that these large impacts on travel patterns can be a pivotal point for the renaissance of active modes of travel (Nurse and Dunning 2020). Although nowadays there is considerably less travel to work, with many employers still encouraging telecommuting, the use of private vehicles for various purposes has nearly recovered compared to pre-pandemic levels (Melo 2022). In this context, it is still not clear if the large increase in telecommuting during the lockdown periods has truly led to more use of active modes of travel for non-work purposes or the opposite.…”

COVID‐19 and the urban housing affordability – evidence from select Indian cities

“…Due to this effect, some United States studies (Brueckner et al, 2023; Ramani & Bloom, 2021) found that the pandemic essentially led to a ‘donut’ effect in housing where the central ring of cities is deserted in favour of the suburbs. Melo (2022) found, unsurprisingly, that the pandemic setback public transport and sustainable urban mobility. This is a phenomenon which may quite well be true for India too.…”