Wildland fire risk research in Canada

Abstract

Despite increasing concern about wildland fire risk in Canada, there is little synthesis of knowledge that could contribute to the development of a comprehensive risk framework for a wide range of values, which is an essential need for the country. With dramatic variability in costs and losses from this natural hazard, there must be more support for complex decision-making under the uncertainty of how to assess and manage risk to coexist with wildland fire. A long history of Canadian wildland fire research offers solid foundational knowledge related to risk, but the key knowledge gaps must be addressed to fully consider risk in a comprehensive manner. We provide a review of the current context in which risk is variably defined, and recommend use of the general paradigm where risk is the product of both the likelihood and the potential impacts of wildland fire. We then synthesize research related to wildland fire risk from the Canadian scientific literature. With this review, we aim to provide a better understanding of research challenges, limitations, and opportunities for future work on fire risk within the country.

Development of the User Requirements for the Canadian WildFireSat Satellite Mission

“…Wildfire management agencies generally employ a risk-based approach where the potential impact(s), likelihood, and resulting expected loss or benefit are assessed at the appropriate scale according to the complexity of the wildfire situation [ 26 , 52 , 53 ]. Decisions often involve multiple decision-makers and stakeholders with varying perspectives concerning risk [ 23 , 26 ]. Decisions are not static and are frequently updated through an iterative process of determining and taking actions, monitoring outcomes, and revising actions until the situation is resolved [ 53 ].…”

“…In recent years, wildfire smoke has been the dominant cause of poor air quality for large portions of Canada [ 24 ]. The impacts of smoke on communities can necessitate an evacuation, even without a direct threat from wildfire [ 25 , 26 , 27 ]. This led to the development of methods to derive emissions from satellite-detected wildfires, and to use the emission estimates in smoke dispersion [ 28 , 29 ] and air quality [ 30 ] forecast systems.…”

Guidelines for effective evaluation and comparison of wildland fire occurrence prediction models

“…Although wildland fires are a natural part of many ecosystems that have several positive impacts (Johnston et al 2020), they also pose a risk to public safety, infrastructure, property and forest resources (Martell 2007). Fire management agencies are faced with the difficult task of balancing the benefits and losses of wildland fires in order to get 'the right amount of fire to the right place at the right time at the right cost' (Martell 2007).…”

“…Wildland fire management can be viewed as a form of risk management (e.g. Xi et al 2019;Johnston et al 2020). One of the key components of wildland fire risk management is accurately quantifying the likelihood or probability of wildland fire occurrence (i.e.…”

Prototyping a Geospatial Atlas for Wildfire Planning and Management

“…As the complexity of wildland fire management has increased, so too has the need for risk-based decision support designed to enhance the safety and effectiveness of large fire management [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. In recent years, the fire science community has developed a wide range of operationally focused assessment and planning tools.…”