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BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Concerns over wildfire impacts to water supplies have motivated efforts to mitigate risk by reducing forest fuels. Methods to assess fuel treatment effects and prioritise their placement are needed to guide risk mitigation efforts. We present a fuel treatment optimisation model to minimise risk to multiple water supplies based on constraints for treatment feasibility and cost. Risk is quantified as the expected sediment impact costs to water supplies by combining measures of fire likelihood and behaviour, erosion, sediment transport and water supply vulnerability. We demonstrate the model’s utility for prioritising fuel treatments in two large watersheds in Colorado, USA, that are critical for municipal water supply. Our results indicate that wildfire risk to water supplies can be substantially reduced by treating a small portion of the watersheds that have dense, fire-prone forests on steep slopes that drain to water supply infrastructure. Our results also show that the cost of fuel treatments outweighs the expected cost savings from reduced sediment inputs owing to the low probability of fuel treatments encountering wildfire and the high cost of thinning forests. This highlights the need to expand use of more cost-effective treatments, like prescribed fire, and to identify fuel treatment projects that benefit multiple resources.

Management of many dry conifer forests in western North America is focused on promoting resilience to future wildfires, climate change, and land use impacts through restoration of historical patterns of forest structure and disturbance processes. Historical structural data provide models for past resilient conditions that inform the design of silvicultural treatments and help to assess the success of treatments at achieving desired conditions. We used dendrochronological data to reconstruct nonspatial and spatial forest structure at 1860 in fourteen 0.5 ha plots in lower elevation (∼1900–2100 m) ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) forests across two study areas in northern Colorado. Fires recorded by trees in two or more plots from 1667 to 1859 occurred, on average, every 8–15 years depending on scale of analysis. The last fire recorded in two or more plots occurred in 1859. Reconstructed 1860 stand structures were very diverse, with tree densities ranging from 0 to 320 trees·ha−1, basal areas ranging from 0.0 to 17.1 m2·ha−1, and quadratic mean diameters ranging from 0.0 to 57.5 cm. All trees in 1860 were ponderosa pine. Trees were significantly aggregated in 62% of plots in which spatial patterns could be estimated, with 10% to 90% of trees mainly occurring in groups of two to eight (maximum, 26). Current stands based on living trees with a diameter at breast height of ≥4 cm are more dense (range, 175–1010 trees·ha−1) with generally increased basal areas (4.4 to 23.1 m2·ha−1) and smaller trees (quadratic mean diameters ranging from 15.7 to 28.2 cm) and contain greater proportions of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum Sarg.). This is the first study to provide detailed quantitative metrics to guide restoration prescription development, implementation, and evaluation in these and similar ponderosa pine forests in northern Colorado.

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