Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation

Mendonça, Sandro; Cunha, Miguel Piña e; Kaivo-oja, Jari; Ruff, Frank

doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00148-4

Cited by 195 publications

(140 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…In this study, a 'softer' use of participants' future images is implemented. This is usually considered relevant in the analysis of novel phenomena with potentially growing importance, that is, weak signals (see Mendon@a et al, 2004). Although the growth of wind power is a rather strong signal in international energy discussion, in Finland it is still weak (see above).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025—‘soft’ scenarios based on expert views

Varho

Tapio

2005

Energy Policy

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In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making. r

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025—‘soft’ scenarios based on expert views

Varho

Tapio

2005

Energy Policy

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“…It should not be forgotten, however, that wild cards can also be beneficial events, whose potential we want to be able to exploit. Usually these events take place so rapidly that normal, planned management processes cannot respond, making the organisations highly vulnerable [27,30,31]. Petersen and Steinmüller argue that in the complex and interconnected world of today, it is now more relevant than ever to study wild cards so that we could prepare for them, prevent them or in some cases even deliberately provoke them [29].…”

Section: Wild Cardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Instead, it can be perceived that weak signals precede wild cards. Thus, weak signals can be employed as a means to anticipate wild cards [1,30].…”

Section: Wild Cardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Takala

Heino

2017

Eur J Futures Res

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Weak signals and wild cards are used to scan the environment and make systems more sensitive to emerging changes. In this paper, the applicability of weak signals and wild cards is experimented in a case of a highly reliable and conservative sector, water and sanitation services. The aim is to explore an approach suitable for water utilities. The paper discusses different theoretical and methodological approaches to weak signals and wild cards, and reflects these in relation to the chosen approach. It is argued that the process of weak signals and wild cards can serve as a communication and reflection exercise for an organisation like a water utility. Furthermore, incorporating weak signals and wild cards can be an essential part in futures thinking, challenge prevailing mental models, and make systems more open to sense and learn from their environment. It is recommended for water utilities to apply a loose approach on weak signals and wild cards and embed it as a part of their organisational culture. However, it should be remembered that the approach should always be chosen to match the overall objectives and context.

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“…As the mission of such organisations differs significantly from the vocation of typical profit oriented companies (they are more oriented towards the public benefit) the need was to develop a tailored made foresight approach (Łabędzka 2011) built on the authors' experience in implementing fore sight processes at national and sectoral levels, the outcomes of case studies analysis and literature review on the sub ject including the above mentioned authors and: Olsmats (2002); Medonca et al (2004);Pirttimäki (2006);Hiltunen (2007); Könnölä (2007); Klinger et al (2008).…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Corporate foresight at the strategic research institutes

Sacio-Szymańska

Mazurkiewicz

Poteralska

2015

Business: Theory and Practice

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help them improve their efficiency and build (or strengthen) their global competitiveness considering the turbulent envi ronment in which they operate. Whereas, the institutes could use foresight to set priorities of strategic research, which cor respond to national and international trends of S&T devel opment, and most importantly: to set operational, business oriented priority directions of development.As there is a wide array of qualitative and quantitative research methods, which can be used equally and in paral lel to arrive at the planned foresight results, the successful implementation of foresight processes, both at the macro, and micro levels depends, among others, on the applied methodology.The paper concentrates on corporate foresight imple mented by research institutes in order to anticipate their own development. Due to the following three reasons:− The specific role of research institutes in national innovation systems (discussed further in the paper), Abstract. Foresight -that is systematic, in depth analyses of social, technological, economic, environmental and political development trends in order to anticipate their impact on organisation, sector or a region in a long term perspectivesupports taking effective strategic and operational decisions at different organisational levels and thus shapes a country's economic development. The paper gives an overview of the corporate foresight process realised at the Institute for Sustainable Technologies -National Research Institute (Radom, Poland) based on an original technology foresight model, which takes into account the results from national and sectoral foresight processes in order to generate and prioritise future research priorities and technologies of the institute. The paper gives evidence of the practical implementation of the institute's cor porate foresight scientific outcomes into the national R&D agenda through the launch of the strategic research programme "Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of Economy". CORPORATE FORESIGHT AT THE STRATEGIC RESEARCH INSTITUTES

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Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation

Cited by 195 publications

References 18 publications

Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025—‘soft’ scenarios based on expert views

Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025—‘soft’ scenarios based on expert views

Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Corporate foresight at the strategic research institutes

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