Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025—‘soft’ scenarios based on expert views

Abstract

In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making. r

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“…The target of 500 MW of installed capacity by the year 2010, in particular, was considered very significant. It was often assumed that, since the state is committed to this target, it would somehow find means of reaching it (Varho and Tapio, 2005). Interestingly, this target was also thought to bind future governments, whereas commitment to particular policy instruments could not be expected.…”

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