Why We Were Surprised (Again) by the Arab Spring

Goodwin, Jeff

doi:10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02045.x

Cited by 76 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…As Tocqueville (1955) famously stated in Ancien Regime, No great historical event is better calculated than the French Revolution to teach political writers and statesmen to be cautious in their speculations; for never was any such event, stemming from factors so far back in the past, so inevitable yet so completely unforeseen. (p. 1) Which protest events will shift from a nucleus of protesters to encompass broader segments of the public is indeed a mystery and one that no models seem able to predict with any certainty (Goodwin, 2011). But unpredictable is not the same as spontaneous or…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

Debunking Spontaneity: Spain's 15-M/Indignadosas Autonomous Movement

Fominaya

2014

Social Movement Studies

327

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confidence: 98%

Debunking Spontaneity: Spain's 15-M/Indignadosas Autonomous Movement

Fominaya

2014

Social Movement Studies

327

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“…Nevertheless, the Arab Spring challenged the persistence of authoritarianism and the routine of international democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa in both theory and practice. The initial introspection into an overall failure to predict this turn of events (Gause III 2011;Goodwin 2011) quickly led to a flourish of writings on the causes and impact of the Arab uprisings and their implications for long-held beliefs in various fields of the social sciences (Volpi 2012). This book contributes to these debates by linking the study of international democracy promotion efforts with the study of authoritarianism and regime dynamics in the analysis of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation on democracy and human rights since the early 1990s.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Taking most scholars and politicians from both within and outside the region by surprise (Gause III 2011;Goodwin 2011), the Arab Spring showed the world that there was an endogenous demand for (democratic) change in Middle Eastern societies that was strong enough to overcome, or at least seriously shake the foundations of, authoritarian survival. Somewhat ironically, it also highlighted once more the limitations of international democracy promotion efforts in the region, questioning in particular the effectiveness of the EU's cooperative approach built around the active engagement of incumbent regimes now openly defied by their own people.…”

Section: The Arab Spring and Euro-mediterranean Cooperationmentioning

confidence: 99%

EU Democracy Promotion and the Arab Spring

Hüllen¹

2015

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This ground-breaking monograph series showcases cutting-edge research on the transformation of governance in countries with weak state institutions. Combining theoretically informed and empirically grounded scholarship, it challenges the conventional governance discourse which is biased towards modern developed nation-states. Instead, the series focuses on governance in Africa, Asia, and Latin America including transnational and transregional dimensions.Located at the intersection of global governance and international relations, on the one hand, and comparative politics, area studies, international law, history, and development studies, on the other, this innovative series helps to challenge fundamental assumptions about governance in the social sciences.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, unpredictable "black swan" events can affect baseline emission projections (Taleb, 2007). Recent developments that would be difficult to predict a priori include the Fukushima nuclear incident (Acton and Hibbs, 2012), the Arab Spring (Goodwin, 2011), and the recent drop in worldwide oil prices (Levi, 2014).Much of the uncertainty regarding future air quality is systematic in nature, which makes it difficult to characterize that uncertainty using probability distributions. As a result, traditional approaches of addressing uncertainty, such as statistical and econometric methods, are challenging to apply.…”

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confidence: 99%

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

Gamas

Dodder

Loughlin

et al. 2015

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NO x emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO 2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions.Implications: Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions. IntroductionIn the United States, air quality managers at the federal and state levels develop emission reduction strategies to meet air quality standards. Emission inventories are projected into the future, both with and without each candidate strategy. Air quality models are then used to evaluate the resulting changes in air quality. At the federal level, illustrative emission reduction strategies are a key component of Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2009[EPA], , 2012a[EPA], 2012b[EPA], , 2014). These strategies demonstrate how an air quality standard can be met and are used in estimating the resulting costs and health and environmental benefits. For states, emission reduction strategies often support State Implementation Plans (SIPs), which specify how the state will comply with air quality standards into the future (e.g., California Air Resources Board [CARB], 2007; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality [TCEQ], 2012). In RIA and SIP applicatio...

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Why We Were Surprised (Again) by the Arab Spring

Cited by 76 publications

References 4 publications

Debunking Spontaneity: Spain's 15-M/Indignadosas Autonomous Movement

Debunking Spontaneity: Spain's 15-M/Indignadosas Autonomous Movement

EU Democracy Promotion and the Arab Spring

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

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