2015
DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2015.1084783
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Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

Abstract: The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states… Show more

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Cited by 12 publications
(13 citation statements)
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References 32 publications
(33 reference statements)
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“…These include assessing the regional air quality impacts associated with climate mitigation options (Rudokas et al, 2015), the energy impacts of internalizing environmental and health damages (Brown et al, 2013, Brown et al, 2017, and the potential emissions impacts of widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption (Keshavarzmohammadian et al, 2017). The model has also been proven to be a powerful tool for scenario analysis (Brown et al, 2018, Gamas et al, 2015. A retrospective analysis (Lenox and Loughlin, 2017) helps validate the model and highlight limitations.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…These include assessing the regional air quality impacts associated with climate mitigation options (Rudokas et al, 2015), the energy impacts of internalizing environmental and health damages (Brown et al, 2013, Brown et al, 2017, and the potential emissions impacts of widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption (Keshavarzmohammadian et al, 2017). The model has also been proven to be a powerful tool for scenario analysis (Brown et al, 2018, Gamas et al, 2015. A retrospective analysis (Lenox and Loughlin, 2017) helps validate the model and highlight limitations.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Changes in demand for transportation fuels may impact fuel prices and instigate fuel switching in other sectors. Traditionally, energy system models are more adept at developing projections that take into account factors such as high and low energy prices and supplies, levels of economic growth (e.g., AEO (EIA, 2016) side cases), specific policy measures and mitigation strategies (Loughlin et al, 2015, Rudokas et al, 2015, Thompson et al, 2014, and technology adoption under varying alternative assumptions about cost and performance (Aitken et al, 2016, Babaee et al, 2014.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Questions 1 to 4: For the specification of the grand challenges and the exploratory scenarios of the grand challenges, environmental scenario development can be applied [27][28][29]. Environmental scenario development in this context aims at constructing coherent storylines describing (i) the variables of the grand challenges and the uncertain driving forces behind the grand challenges, (ii) the relationships between the variables of a single grand challenge or the variables between multiple grand challenges, and, (iii) the way grand challenges can unfold over time, at geographical scales and/or organizational levels.…”
Section: Activity 1a Of Maturity Stage 1: Specification Of the Relatimentioning
confidence: 99%
“…An estimate of the world population living in coastal areas was approximately 1.4 billion people in 2015, with expected populations growing to more than 1.6 billion by 2024 (Geohive, 2015). With the growth of coastal communities comes air management challenges (Gamas et al, 2015). Local ambient air quality is impacted by the volume of emissions from industry, transportation, and residential activities, as well as meteorological and seasonal changes (Fiore et al, 2015;Kimbrough et al, 2013).…”
Section: Coastal Urban Centersmentioning
confidence: 99%