Why Tehran Won't Abandon Assad(ism)

Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions

“…Leaders, under this view, differ in the types of crises and events that they will respond to rather than in their fundamental propensity to intervene. 62 Leader personality may also affect a leader's decisionmaking process in ways that affect intervention outcomes. Past research has indicated that leaders differ in how much they involve advisers, parliamentary bodies, and other experts in foreign policy decisions and that their approach to the decisionmaking process can affect the outcomes of those decisions.…”

“…Once the international community turned against Assad, Iran's primary focus was not saving him but instead ensuring that a transition of power was closely aligned with its interests. 62 In the case of Iraq, the Iranian intervention similarly was influenced by the relationship between the two states. Once again, however, power relationships were at the center of the intervention, which Iran used to solidify its patron-client relationship with Iraq.…”

“…After it split into national parties, its Vietnamese offshoot continued to dominate and control the Laotian and Cambodian communist organizations through most of the 1960s. 62 Although Vietnam's historical domination of Indochina may not have been a sufficient motivation for the invasions the Vietnamese communists launched into Cambodia and Laos throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, it likely made such interference a more natural choice. It may also have helped predispose the Vietnamese to see the existence of pliable regimes in Indochina as a natural component of Vietnamese security and a way to uphold Vietnam's national status.…”

“…See Carlyle A. Thayer, Security Issues in Southeast Asia: The Third Indochina War, delivered to conference on "Security and Arms Control in the North Pacific," Canberra, Australia, August 12-14, 1987. 62 Langer and Zasloff, 1970, pp. 172-173, 178;Chang, 1985, pp.…”

Contentious Politics in Iran: Factions, Foreign Policy and the Nuclear Deal

“…63 While the comprehensive deal enhanced Iran's position against most of the Arab/ Gulf states in the region, the ongoing civil war on ethnic and sectarian lines in Syria transformed into a proxy war in which Iran has already took part in the Eastern bloc along with Russia and China. 64 In this context, Ali Akbar Velayati's words, a senior advisor to Khamanei, "Syria is the golden ring of the chain of resistance against Israel" could well shed light well on Iran's alliance with the Assad government. As the conflict grew further between rebel militia groups and government forces, taking support of Iraq's Maliki government, Iran started to send direct military assistance, weapons and advisors to the Assad government.…”