Why does phenology drive species distribution?

Abstract

Despite the numerous studies which have been conducted during the past decade on species ranges and their relationship to the environment, our understanding of how environmental conditions shape species distribution is still far from complete. Yet, some process-based species distribution models have been able to simulate plants and insects distribution at a global scale. These models strongly rely on the completion of the annual cycle of the species and therefore on their accomplished phenology. In particular, they have shown that the northern limit of species' ranges appears to be caused mainly by the inability to undergo full fruit maturation, while the southern limit appears to be caused by the inability to flower or unfold leaves owing to a lack of chilling temperatures that are necessary to break bud dormancy. I discuss here why phenology is a key adaptive trait in shaping species distribution using mostly examples from plant species, which have been the most documented. After discussing how phenology is involved in fitness and why it is an adaptive trait susceptible to evolve quickly in changing climate conditions, I describe how phenology is related to fitness in species distribution process-based models and discuss the fate of species under climate change scenarios using model projections and experimental or field studies from the literature.

Temperate and boreal forest tree phenology: from organ-scale processes to terrestrial ecosystem models

“…Whereas the influence of temperature has been well documented in recent decades, especially with respect to the timing of budburst (e.g., Linkosalo et al 2006;Menzel et al 2006;Linkosalo et al 2009), the understanding of the influence of photoperiod still generates intense debate within the scientific community (e.g., Körner and Basler 2010 and the reply in Chuine et al 2010;Laube et al 2014). Temperature has contrasting effects on bud development depending on the dormancy state (endodormancy versus ecodormancy, Fig.…”

“…Similarly, fine-root phenology is expected to directly influence mineral acquisition (Nord and Lynch 2009), with potential impacts on individual fitness. Finally, phenology has been shown to be a key determinant of tree fitness and tree species distribution (Chuine 2010).…”

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

“…Jö nsson et al 2009), such that longer growing seasons can allow species establishment beyond the current range limit. This is the rationale behind process-based models such as PHENOFIT, described in this issue by Chuine (2010). Such approaches promise more mechanistically grounded forecasts of species range changes with climate warming than have been provided by purely correlation-based 'climate envelope' techniques.…”

“…Awareness of the linkages between these fields should improve the mechanistic understanding of phenology and forecasts of climate change impacts. The articles by Wilczek et al (2010) and Chuine (2010) illustrate the utility of taking a mechanistic approach to fundamental ecological questions (see also de Senerpont Domis et al (2007) for an application in a different system). Furthermore, deeper knowledge of the developmental and physiological aspects of phenology should improve our understanding of the prospects for evolutionary change in phenological traits (cf.…”

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

“…More specifically, we hypothesized that the level of species' climatic niche conservatism through phenological changes explains, at least partly, the reported wide variance between species in the extent of range shifts and climatic niche conservatism via range shifts. Failure to track a changing climate during flowering has a detrimental effect, increasing the risk of frost and drought damage [10], reducing competitive ability [11] ( particularly against species that are pre-adapted or more responsive [12]), lowering productivity [13] and disrupting temporal interactions between species [14], although climatic conditions can also affect the fitness of plant species outside the flowering season. Species can maintain climatic niche during flowering under a warming climate by two types of responses: range shift and phenological changes.…”