Strategic investments and coordination are needed for citizen science to reach its full potential.

Climate change has led to major changes in the phenology (the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) of some species but not others. The extent to which flowering-time response to temperature is shared among closely related species might have important consequences for community-wide patterns of species loss under rapid climate change. Henry David Thoreau initiated a dataset of the Concord, Massachusetts, flora that spans Ϸ150 years and provides information on changes in species abundance and flowering time. When these data are analyzed in a phylogenetic context, they indicate that change in abundance is strongly correlated with flowering-time response. Species that do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance, and include among others anemones and buttercups [Ranunculaceae pro parte (p.p.)], asters and campanulas (Asterales), bluets (Rubiaceae p.p.), bladderworts (Lentibulariaceae), dogwoods (Cornaceae), lilies (Liliales), mints (Lamiaceae p.p.), orchids (Orchidaceae), roses (Rosaceae p.p.), saxifrages (Saxifragales), and violets (Malpighiales). Because flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species, our findings suggest that climate change has affected and will likely continue to shape the phylogenetically biased pattern of species loss in Thoreau's woods.conservation ͉ extinction ͉ phenology ͉ phylogenetic conservatism ͉ phylogeny T he impact of climate change on species and communities has been well documented. Arctic forests are shifting poleward and alpine tree lines are shifting upward (1-3); spring flowering time is advancing rapidly (4-7); pest outbreaks are spreading (8); and numerous species are declining in abundance and risk extinction (9). However, despite these generalized trends, species vary dramatically in their responses to climate change. For example, although the spring flowering times of many temperate plants are advancing, some are not changing and others are flowering later in the season (5, 10, 11). Understanding the evolutionary (i.e., phylogenetic) history of traits that are influenced by climate (e.g., flowering phenology) has been an underexplored area of climate change biology, despite the fact that it could prove especially useful in predicting how species and communities will respond to future climate change. Closely related species often share similar traits, a pattern known as phylogenetic conservatism (12)(13)(14)(15)(16)17). If closely related species share similar traits that make them more susceptible to climate change (14, 17), species loss may not be random or uniform, but rather biased against certain lineages in the Tree of Life (i.e., phylogenetic selectivity; see ref. 18). However, a deeper inquiry into these patterns has been hampered largely because adequate datasets documenting community-wide responses to climate change are exceedingly rare.During the mid-19th century, the naturalist and conservationist Henry David Thoreau spent decades exploring the temperate fields, wetlands, and deciduous forests of Concord...

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomenafrom individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes-have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal-and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.

As a result of climate change, many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However, some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate, we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord, Massachusetts, USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858, continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888-1902, and concluded with our own observations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. From 1852 through 2006, Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species, we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species, but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases, such as within the genera Betula and Solidago, closely related, co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate, are common across much of the United States, and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware, when using data sets involving multiple observers, of how varying methodologies, sample sizes, and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using historical observations, like those of Thoreau and Hosmer, as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change.

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Museum specimens collected in the past may be a valuable source of information on the response of species to climate change. This idea was tested by comparing the flowering times during the year 2003 of 229 living plants growing at the Arnold Arboretum in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, with 372 records of flowering times from 1885 to 2002 using herbarium specimens of the same individual plants. During this period, Boston experienced a 1.5°C increase in mean annual temperature. Flowering times became progressively earlier; plants flowered 8 d earlier from 1980 to 2002 than they did from 1900 to 1920. Most of this shift toward earlier flowering times is explained by the influence of temperature, especially temperatures in the months of February, March, April, and May, on flowering time. Plants with a long flowering duration appear to be as useful for detecting responses to changing temperatures as plants with a short flowering duration. Additional studies using herbarium specimens to detect responses to climate change could examine specimens from specific, intensively collected localities, such as mountain peaks, islands, and unique habitats.

History of citizen science A Miller-Rushing et al. 286www.frontiersinecology.org