Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities

Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

“…Although (9) Sarpong's framework falls far short of being labeled a theory, the temporal element of strategymaking has recently been elucidated in a theoretical model of practice of strategy making [30]. Burt [31] provides a method for developing scenarios for a system by mapping its causal loops and showing how disruptive innovations could alter the business-as-usual in the system. This appears to be a useful process for developing scenarios; however, no theoretical foundation is provided for creating the system's causal loop diagrams.…”

“…However, our framework explicitly recognizes the bounded rationality of scenario creators and does not rely on the representative agents' ability to correctly predict the consequences of their actions, which, according to the authors, are often unintended. The explicit treatment of bounded rationality in our axioms also sets our model apart from Burt's [31] by stating which agents are likely to be more knowledgeable about different parts of the organizational environment being presented in the future scenarios.…”

Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

“…So FCMbased scenario development approach has potential to combine qualitative storylines and quantitative models [9]. Research indicates that integration of multiple approaches in scenario building process guarantees more robust scenarios [22,58].…”

“…Burt describes that scenarios should have description of a plausible future and an internally consistent account of how a future world unfolds [58]. de Brabandere and Alan Iny argue that good scenarios must be relevant to the decisions to be taken, coherent, plausible, convincing, transparent, easy to recount and illustrate [20].…”

Prospecção do futuro nas empresas: uma proposta de modelo para integração entre o estudo do futuro e a estratégia empresarial

“…A contribuição aqui referida é em relação à utilização dos resultados da prospecção do futuro para suporte às decisões no âmbito da estratégia. Burt (2007), Day e Schoemaker (2007) A prospecção contribuiu para: Aprimoramento do processo de tomada de decisão no projeto, por meio da análise das incertezas de futuro Johnston (2013), Milliken (1987, Hamel e Prahalad (1996), Godet (1994), Ringland (2006), Heger e Rohrbeck (2012), Roney (2010), Wilson (2000), Chermack (2011) A prospecção contribuiu para: Identificação de quais os principais temas que devem ser monitorados após o início da implantação do projeto Roney (2010), Armstrong (1985), Hogarth e Makridakis (1981), Schwartz (2003), Ramirez et al (2010), Rohrbeck e Bade (2012), Grim (2009) A prospecção contribuiu para: Identificação de quais as principais tendências e eventos do ambiente futuro, estimando as chances de suas ocorrências.…”