2018
DOI: 10.1177/0486613417722527
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Why Are Keynesian Multipliers Larger in Hard Times? A Palley-Aftalion-Pasinetti Explanation

Abstract: We use the Annual Macroeconomic database of the European Commission (AMECO) to confirm that textbook multipliers are nearly always greater than one and that they increase during recessions. Propensity to import falls in recessions through the combined effects of the amplified fall in investment and the high import content of investment. A change in saving behavior may also raise the multiplier. These findings strongly support the need for countercyclical fiscal policies during recessions.

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Cited by 8 publications
(3 citation statements)
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“…The 2015 categorisation provided weak implementation frameworks for users of social programmes. It was marred by over-dependency on the government, and slow graduation of communities from poverty (Charles, Dallery, & Marie, 2014).…”
Section: Ubudehe Categorizationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The 2015 categorisation provided weak implementation frameworks for users of social programmes. It was marred by over-dependency on the government, and slow graduation of communities from poverty (Charles, Dallery, & Marie, 2014).…”
Section: Ubudehe Categorizationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Of course, Keynesian multiplier estimates have to be used and for each year. Charles et al (2018) produce such estimates which we use again here. By this method we can show the level of public deficit the government should have run if it was trying to target a zero output gap.…”
Section: European Commissionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…5 and 6, respectively). In a series of contributions,Charles (2016) andCharles et al (2015Charles et al ( , 2018 argue both theoretically, within post-Keynesian aggregate models, and empirically that the fiscal spending multiplier value is probably greater than unity and, during important recessions, decreases in the savings ratio out of profits and/or the propensity to import are large enough to increase this value.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%