Who uses base rates andP(D/∼H)? An analysis of individual differences

Abstract

In two experiments, involving over 900 subjects, we examined the cognitive correlates of the tendency to view P(D/-H) and base rate information as relevant to probability assessment. Wefound that individuals who viewed P(D/-H) as relevant in a selection task and who used it to make the proper Bayesian adjustment in a probability assessment task scored higher on tests of cognitive ability and were better deductive and inductive reasoners. They were less biased by prior beliefs and more datadriven on a covariation assessment task. In contrast, individuals who thought that base rates were relevant did not display better reasoning skill or higher cognitive ability. Our results parallel disputes about the normative status of various components of the Bayesian formula in interesting ways. It is argued that patterns of covariance among reasoning tasks may have implications for inferences about what individuals are trying to optimize in a rational analysis

Is probability matching smart? Associations between probabilistic choices and cognitive ability

“…These self-reported scores closely matched the averages for this institution (582, 587, and 1,169, respectively; James Madison University Office of Institutional Research, 1999Research, -2000. A further indication of the validity of such self-reported scores was obtained by Stanovich and West (1998b), who found that the correlation between a vocabulary test and self-reported SAT total scores (.49) was quite similar to the .51 correlation between the vocabulary test and verified total SAT scores in a previous investigation using the same vocabulary measure (West & Stanovich, 1991). A final indication of the validity of the SAT self-reports is that the vocabulary test in the Stanovich and West (1998b) study displayed a higher correlation with the verbal SAT scores (.61) than with the mathematical SAT scores (.13).…”

“…A further indication of the validity of such self-reported scores was obtained by Stanovich and West (1998b), who found that the correlation between a vocabulary test and self-reported SAT total scores (.49) was quite similar to the .51 correlation between the vocabulary test and verified total SAT scores in a previous investigation using the same vocabulary measure (West & Stanovich, 1991). A final indication of the validity of the SAT self-reports is that the vocabulary test in the Stanovich and West (1998b) study displayed a higher correlation with the verbal SAT scores (.61) than with the mathematical SAT scores (.13). In the experiment that follows, the relationships with verbal SAT and mathematical SAT scores were very similar (there were no significant interactions with SAT subscale).…”

Reasoning deficits in ecstasy (MDMA) polydrug users

“…According to Piaget's notion of formal operational thought (Inhelder & Piaget, 1958) and Johnson-Laird's (1983) mental models perspective, the ability to solve syllogisms is indicative of a broader capacity for logical thought which supports reasoning in everyday contexts. Indeed individual differences in syllogistic reasoning performance were found to be significantly correlated with SAT mathematics scores among college students (Stanovich & West, 1998) and with cognitive ability scores in 10 to 13 year old children (Kokis et al, 2002). Furthermore abilities in conditional reasoning (Piburn 1990) and syllogistic reasoning (Watters & English, 1995) have been linked with the development of scientific reasoning skills in elementary school children.…”

Diagnostic hypothesis generation and human judgment.

“…Moreover, there is evidence that participants high in cognitive ability (a proxy for WM span) are more likely to engage in diagnostic search (Stanovich & West, 1998a, 1998b. Although no research has explicitly addressed the relationship between WM, hypothesis generation, and information search, the available evidence suggests the links are highly plausible.…”