Diagnostic hypothesis generation and human judgment.

Thomas, Rick P.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber M.; Harbison, J. Isaiah

doi:10.1037/0033-295x.115.1.155

Cited by 187 publications

(221 citation statements)

References 127 publications

(241 reference statements)

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“…1 In particular, a series of studies have been successful in corroborating, by simulation or empirical research, the hypothesis that judgments and decisions are, in some circumstances, expressed on the basis of memory sampling or cued recall processes (e.g., Fiedler & Juslin, 2006; Lange, Thomas & Davelaar, 2012;Stewart, Chater & Brown, 2006;Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger & Harbison, 2008), and that judgments of frequency rely on strategies supported by different types of long-term memory processes and representations (Brown, 1995(Brown, , 1997(Brown, , 2002Haberstroh, 2008). As we will explain in the next section, we hypothesize that episodic memory processes are selectively involved in performing the Recognizing Social Norms tasks of the A-DMC battery, which relies on judgments of frequency based on accumulated experience.…”

Section: Long-term Declarative Memory and Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Multifold Relationship Between Memory and Decision Making: An individual-differences study

Missier¹,

Bruin²,

Nilsson³

et al. 2012

PsycEXTRA Dataset

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Several judgment and decision-making tasks are assumed to involve memory functions, but significant knowledge gaps on the memory processes underlying these tasks remain. In a study on 568 adults between 25 to 80 years, hypotheses were tested on the specific relationships between individual differences in working memory, episodic memory, and semantic memory, respectively, and six main components of decision-making competence. In line with the hypotheses, working memory was positively related with the more cognitively-demanding tasks (Resistance to Framing, Applying Decision Rules, and Under/Overconfidence), whereas episodic memory was positively associated with a more experience-based judgment task (Recognizing Social Norms). Furthermore, semantic memory was positively related with two more knowledge-based decision-making tasks (Consistency in Risk Perception and Resistance to Sunk Costs). Finally, the age-related decline observed in some of the decision-making tasks was (partially or totally) mediated by the age-related decline in working memory or episodic memory. These findings are discussed in relation to the functional roles fulfilled by different memory processes in judgment and decision-making tasks.Keywords: Judgment and decision making; Decision-making competence; Working memory; Episodic memory; Semantic memory; Cognitive aging; Individual differences. MEMORY AND DECISION MAKING 3The Multifold Relationship Between Memory and Decision Making: An Individual-differences Study Among the more promising research developments in the field of judgment and decision making is the attempt to ground judgment and decision-making processes in findings and models derived from memory research, tracing complex cognitive tasks back to their basic cognitive roots to improve the understanding of how individuals perform these tasks. Indeed, memory can play an important role in several aspects of judgment and decision-making tasks (for reviews see, e.g., Alba, Hutchinson & Lynch, 1991;Dougherty, Gronlund & Gettys, 2003;Tomlinson, Marewski & Dougherty, 2011;Weber, Goldstein & Barlas, 1995), and the age-related decline observed in some aspects of memory functioning (Park, 2000;Park et al., 1996Park et al., , 2002Salthouse, 2004) can mediate part of the age-related changes in decision-making abilities. However, the investigation of the role of memory functions in decision making has been scattered and nonsystematic, leaving various knowledge gaps about which memory functions underly specific decision-making tasks open. The study presented in this paper aims to fill some of these gaps through a systematic analysis of the relationships between individual differences in memory processes and individual differences in various aspects of decision-making competence, guided by a functional view of memory processes in decision making.In the next section, the theoretical background of the research will be presented, followed by the specific hypotheses of the study, which refer to the contribution of different memory processes to ...

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Section: Long-term Declarative Memory and Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Multifold Relationship Between Memory and Decision Making: An individual-differences study

Missier¹,

Bruin²,

Nilsson³

et al. 2012

PsycEXTRA Dataset

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“…Often, however, symptoms are ambiguous and the clinician has to consider multiple alternative diagnoses. Then, medical diagnosis is a case of hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing (Lange, Thomas, & Davelaar, 2012;Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008) as it occurs in science, criminal investigation, or searching for faults in technical systems. Diagnostic reasoning with limited information search, for example, when clinical cases are presented as case histories, requires information integration based on knowledge and multiple probabilistic cues.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Memory indexing of sequential symptom processing in diagnostic reasoning

Jahn

Braatz

2014

Cognitive Psychology

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Explaining symptoms by the most likely cause is a process during which hypotheses are activated and updated in memory. By letting participants learn about causes and symptoms in a spatial array, we could apply eye tracking during diagnostic reasoning to trace the activation level of hypotheses across a sequence of symptoms. Fixation proportions on former locations of possible causes reflected the causal strength of initial symptoms, a bias towards focal hypotheses, and the final diagnosis. Looking-at-nothing revealing memory activation consistent with process models of diagnostic reasoning was stable even after one week.

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“…Although memory-based theories of decision making (such as decision by sampling [Stewart, Chater, & Brown, 2006] and HyGene [Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008]) assign a central role to memory-sampling and associative-cuing processes, very few experimental studies have empirically investigated the influence of partset cuing on the generation of decision options. Thus, little evidence is available to support the presumed influence of part-set cuing on option generation.…”

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confidence: 99%