Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects

Górecki, Jarosław; Díaz‐Madroñero, Manuel

doi:10.3390/su12083370

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Górecki and Diaz-Madronero [93] point to the rising demands of the key market players who insist on making construction projects more sustainable according to the simultaneous improvement of the economic, environmental and social responsiveness dimensions. The authors conducted a survey among construction experts from Northern Poland to detect their subjective perspectives about risk costs and analyze the corresponding costs structure for the investment in sustainable projects.…”

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confidence: 99%

Quantifying Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in Management of Investment-Construction Projects: Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging

Sobieraj

Metelski

2021

Buildings

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The problem with evaluating investment projects is that there are many factors that determine the degree of their successful conclusion. Consequently, there has been an active debate for years as to which critical success factors (CSFs) contribute most to the performance of construction projects. This is because the practice of empirical research is based on two steps: first, researchers choose a particular model from the space of all possible models, and second, they act as if the chosen model is the only one that fits the data and describes the phenomenon under study. Hence, there are many CSF lists that can be found in the literature, owing to the uncertainty at the model selection stage, which is usually ignored. Alternatively, model averaging accounts for this model uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian model averaging and data from a survey of Polish construction managers were used to investigate the potential of 28 factors describing a diverse set of characteristics in explaining the performance of construction projects in Poland. Determinants of successful completion of investment projects are categorized by their level of evidential strength, which is derived from posterior inclusion probabilities (PIPs), i.e., providing strong, medium and weak evidence.

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confidence: 99%

Quantifying Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in Management of Investment-Construction Projects: Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging

Sobieraj

Metelski

2021

Buildings

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“…Kumar [18] adhered to a lognormal distribution of project costs. Gorecki [21] used a triangular distribution. The Czech author Hnilica [22] worked with the beta-PERT distribution, which he considered to be smoother, with possible values more concentrated around the most probable value, and the probability decreases towards the limit values faster than linearly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context

Korytářová

Hromádka

2020

Applied Sciences

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This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.

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“…With a different approach, research in Poland attempted to simulate cost variance in the GB project based on Monte Carlo simulation (Górecki et al, 2020). The result supposed that the changing probability distributions of cost elements might involve economic, technological, and organizational features.…”

Section: Study Financial-related Risks In Gb Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk management in green building: a review of the current state of research and future directions

Nguyen

Macchion

2022

Environ Dev Sustain

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There has been considerable interest in investigating risk factors in Green Building (GB) projects, with increasing debates in recent years. This study aims to investigate tendencies and identify gaps in the GB risk literature, which can define future research guidelines, with an extensive analysis of the latest contributions. A systematic literature review was conducted by analyzing 64 relevant studies from 2006 to 2020. The results revealed that the GB risk topic is somewhat nascent but growing and almost limited to several countries, including Singapore, the USA, Australia, and China. Notably, this research discovered and classified the main themes of GB risk studies: (1) identify risk factors in implementing GB projects, (2) create risk assessment models for GB projects, (3) study according to specific types of GB risks, and (4) investigate risks in green retrofit projects. Also, a comprehensive list of GB risk factors was provided that could be a helpful reference for industry practitioners and future researchers. Furthermore, this research identified gaps in the current literature, such as inconsistency in identifying GB risk factors, lack of investigation of the relationship between GB risks and project outcomes, and lack of exploring in cross-country or developing countries. Finally, this research suggested future research directions to enrich the literature. Thus, this study contributes a valuable platform for both practitioners and researchers to comprehend the development of the GB risk literature.

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Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects

Cited by 14 publications

References 68 publications

Quantifying Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in Management of Investment-Construction Projects: Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging

Quantifying Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in Management of Investment-Construction Projects: Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging

Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context

Risk management in green building: a review of the current state of research and future directions

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