Who Made Peak Car, and How? A Breakdown of Trends over Four Decades in Four Countries

Kuhnimhof, Tobias; Zumkeller, Dirk; Chlond, Bastian

doi:10.1080/01441647.2013.801928

Cited by 107 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Such a relationship is suggested by our data (Figs. 1 and 2) and is consistent with the broader evidence on 'peak car' which suggests that distance travelled has begun to decline in several OECD countries (Kuhnimhof et al, 2013;Metz, 2013). For illustration, the Type B static model becomes:…”

Section: Quadratic Income Variantssupporting

confidence: 62%

Estimating Direct Rebound Effects for Personal Automotive Travel in Great Britain

2015

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JEL classification: Q41 R41 R48 Keywords:Rebound effect Asymmetry Fuel prices Robustness Fuel efficiency Peak car Direct rebound effects result from increased consumption of cheaper energy services. For example, more fuel-efficient cars encourage more car travel. This study is the first to quantify this effect for personal automotive travel in Great Britain. We use aggregate time series data on transport activity, fuel consumption and other relevant variables over the period 1970-2011 and estimate the direct rebound effect from the elasticity of both vehicle and passenger kilometres with respect to: a) vehicle fuel efficiency (km/MJ); b) the fuel cost of driving (£/km); and c) road fuel prices (£/MJ). We estimate a total of 108 models, paying careful attention to methodological issues and model diagnostics. Taking changes in fuel efficiency as the explanatory variable, we find little evidence of a long-run direct rebound effect in Great Britain over this period. However, taking changes in either the fuel cost of driving or fuel prices as the explanatory variable we estimate a direct rebound effect in the range 9% to 36% with a mean of~19%. This estimate is consistent with the results of US studies and suggests that around one fifth of the potential fuel savings from improved car fuel efficiency may have been eroded through increased driving. We also show how the normalisation of distance travelled (per capita, per adult or per driver) affects the results obtained.

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Section: Quadratic Income Variantssupporting

confidence: 62%

Estimating Direct Rebound Effects for Personal Automotive Travel in Great Britain

2015

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“…This decline in youth licensing is an important trend to understand; generation Y recently surpassed the baby boomers to become the largest generation in both the USA and Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011b;Lachman & Brett, 2011); so understanding their travel needs will become increasingly important for forecasting travel demand and mode choice. As noted in this issue, several industrialised nations have identified stagnating or decreasing car travel demand (Headicar, 2013;Kuhnimhof, Buehler, Wirtz, & Kalinowska, 2012b;Le Vine, Jones, & Polak, 2009;Metz, 2013;Newman & Kenworthy, 2011;Puentes & Tomer, 2008;Zumkeller, Chlond, & Manz, 2004) and some researchers are already estimating the extent to which changes in licensing are contributing to this trend (Kuhnimhof, Zumkeller, & Chlond, 2013a, 2013b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Causes of Youth Licensing Decline: A Synthesis of Evidence

2013

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In recent decades, young adults in many developed nations have become increasingly less likely to acquire a driving license. If this trend continues it could have significant impacts on transport futures. Licensing reductions have only recently been identified and causes are only just being explored. This paper presents a first synthesis of available evidence including an assessment of more influential causal factors. It begins by documenting the declining trend evident in 9 of 14 documented countries; the average rate of decline is 0.6% per annum, with highest declines documented in Australia. A range of causal factors are documented from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. Changes in life stage and living arrangements, changes in motoring affordability, location and transport, graduated driver licensing schemes, attitudinal influences and the role of e-communication are all explored. Evidence is in general weak and preliminary but suggests multiple causes rather than any single influence. However, of the evidence available life stage factors and affordability influences have stronger links to license decline but are only likely to have a low affect size.

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“…Decoupling of person and tonne-kilometres from GDP growth is a policy goal (Centre for Sustainable Transport [CST], 2005), and evidence that freight transport demand (McKinnon, 2014 2007) and passenger transport demand (Millard-Ball & Schipper, 2011) are growing slower than GDP is emerging in some countries. In particular, the daily distance travelled by car is stabilizing or decreasing in several developed countries, a trend that -even though not fully understood -is also called 'peak car' (Kuhnimhof, Zumkeller, & Chlond, 2013).…”

Section: Transport -Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some urban environments in the developed world, car ownership especially among younger people is dropping as public transport, walking and cycling become feasible alternatives (Kuhnimhof et al, 2013).…”

Section: Transport Development and Climate Change Mitigation 347mentioning

confidence: 99%

Transport, Development and Climate Change Mitigation: Towards an Integrated Approach

et al. 2014

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Who Made Peak Car, and How? A Breakdown of Trends over Four Decades in Four Countries

Cited by 107 publications

References 6 publications

Estimating Direct Rebound Effects for Personal Automotive Travel in Great Britain

Estimating Direct Rebound Effects for Personal Automotive Travel in Great Britain

Causes of Youth Licensing Decline: A Synthesis of Evidence

Transport, Development and Climate Change Mitigation: Towards an Integrated Approach

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