Whistling Through the COVID-19 Pandemic: Optimism Bias and Political Beliefs in the United States

Abstract

Utilizing a nationally representative survey of Americans from December 2020, we consider the degree to which COVID-19 risk perceptions are related to political factors. We examine the likelihood that one believes they will be infected with COVID-19, the likelihood that a peer will be infected, and the difference between the individual and peer perceived risks, known as optimism bias, and compare these perceptions across partisan characteristics. Results show that Trump voting category is the most important contributor to perceived COVID-19 risks. We find similar partisan differences as prior research, note that these differences persisted through the end of 2020, despite the post-Thanksgiving surge with high and growing rates of COVID in all regions of the United States. Contrary to prior expectations, partisanship does not strongly predict the level of optimism bias, as both assessed personal and general health risks track closely with one another by both political party and ideology.

Hurt on Both Sides: Political Differences in Health and Well-Being during the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Political background has acted as a lens through which to view the COVID-19 pandemic, shaping coping strategies, meaning-making, and emotional responses. In general, liberals and/or Democrats have perceived greater risk from the coronavirus and have been more likely to engage in health-protective behaviors (Barrios and Hochberg 2020;Gadarian et al 2021;Kwon 2023;Stroebe et al 2021;Wolaver and Doces 2022;Young et al 2022). While individuals personally impacted by the pandemic may be more likely to take health precautions, this effect appears to be much smaller than that of political party (Collins et al 2021).…”

“…for public health agencies, have been observed among conservatives or Republicans compared to liberals or Democrats (Barrios and Hochberg 2020;Gadarian, Goodman, and Pepinsky 2021;Kwon 2023;Stroebe et al 2021;Wolaver and Doces 2022;Young et al 2022).…”

“…Epidemiological research finds higher COVID-19 infection and mortality rates in conservative or Republican-leaning geographic areas compared to more liberal or Democratic areas, even after adjusting for demographic confounders (e.g., Eden et al 2021; Sehgal et al 2022)—with some notable exceptions early in the pandemic (e.g., New York City; Chen and Karim 2022). Meanwhile, stark differences in attitudes about the pandemic, including lower perceived risk, less endorsement of masking, and weaker support for public health agencies, have been observed among conservatives or Republicans compared to liberals or Democrats (Barrios and Hochberg 2020; Gadarian, Goodman, and Pepinsky 2021; Kwon 2023; Stroebe et al 2021; Wolaver and Doces 2022; Young et al 2022).…”

The health costs of political identity: evidence from the US during the COVID-19 pandemic

“…There is mounting evidence that political identity in the United States has impacted safety responses to the pandemic (Allcott et al, 2020;Gollwitzer et al, 2020;Goodman and Pepinsky, 2020;Druckman et al, 2020;Grossman et al, 2020;Painter and Qiu, 2020;He et al, 2021;Wallace et al, 2022;Wolaver and Doces, 2022;Young et al, 2022;Dow et al, 2023) as well as how that risk pertains to group versus individual identity (Kyung et al, 2021). A Pew Research survey during the early and most dangerous phase of the pandemic found that 35% of Republicans (compared to 64% of Democrats) were "very" or "somewhat" concerned that they would become infected with COVID-19 ( .…”