Which Risk Factors are Really Predictive?

Abstract

In this study, we examined the (incremental) predictive validity of Andrews and Bonta’s Central Eight risk factors for recidivism in the German youth correctional system. The sample consisted of N = 589 male youth inmates who were incarcerated for the first time. Recidivism during the 78 months’ follow-up was assessed using official data. The Central Eight risk factors predicted recidivism in survival analyses. In a cross-validation, composite scores predicted general (area under curve [AUC] = .65) and violent recidivism (AUC = .66). The Moderate Four risk factors (family, school, leisure/recreation, substance abuse) showed predictive validity incremental to the Big Four risk factors (history of antisocial behavior, antisocial personality pattern, antisocial cognition, antisocial associates). School was the most predictive single risk factor. The results provide evidence for the applicability of the Central Eight as predictors for recidivism in the German youth correctional system. Furthermore, the study adds to the debate on the importance of dynamic risk factors.

Examination of convergent validity of START: AV ratings among male juveniles on probation

“…Therefore, we assume that criminal attitudes play a more significant role in the samples characterized by lengthier or more serious criminal history. This assumption is also supported by the study in a sample of German youth inmates, which found that antisocial cognition appears among four key factors predicting violent recidivism, but not general reoffending (Grieger & Hosser, 2014). Another study with female young offenders also showed that while CSS-M adequately measures pro-criminal attitudes, the attitudes themselves are not so important for the offending behaviour (O'Hagan, Brown, & Skilling, 2014).…”

“…Decades of research have found a huge number of factors significant to the origins and maintenance of delinquent behaviour (Skilling & Sorge, 2014), such as antisocial peers or attitudes, personality or misconduct problems, poor parent-child relations, educational difficulties and/or ineffective use of leisure time are the best predictors of delinquency (Campbell, Schmidt, & Wershler, 2016;Cauffman & Steinberg, 2012;Contreras, Molina, & Cano, 2011;Grieger & Hosser, 2014;Heilbrun et al, 2000;Simourd & Andrews, 1994). The domain of behavioural history is the strongest predictor of future delinquency (Casey, 2011;Cottle, Lee, & Heilbrun, 2001;Farrington, 2005;Frick, 2012;Frick, Ray, Thornton, & Kahn, 2014;Wasserman et al, 2003) meaning that the earlier the onset of behaviour problems, the worse predictions of desistance from antisocial behaviour are in the future (Dishion & Patterson, 2006;Loeber & Farrington, 2000;Moffitt, 1993Moffitt, , 2006.…”

“…Individual characteristics play an important role in manifestation of delinquent behaviour (Andrews & Bonta, 2010;Skilling & Sorge, 2014). Antisocial personality pattern refers to extremes of normal dimensions of personality that exist within general population (Grieger & Hosser, 2014;Hare & Neumann, 2010); however, there are some doubts whether any particular type of personality can be labelled for adolescents as there is a threat that some maladaptive features prevailing in adolescence can lead to the positive false assessment of antisocial personality (Hart, Watt, & Vincent, 2002;Seagrave & Grisso, 2002). On the other hand, callous-unemotional or impulsivity traits observed in childhood remain pretty stable through the lifetime (Dhingra & Boduszek, 2013;Frick, Kimonis, Dandreaux, & Farell, 2003;Roberts & DelVecchio, 2000;Lynam & 2018, 22, 31-54 p. Examination of Convergent Validity of START: AV Ratings Among Male Juveniles on Probation Gudonis, 2005;Lynam, Charnigo, Moffitt, Raine, Loeber, & Stouthamer-Loeber, 2009).…”

El Análisis de Supervivencia como Técnica para la Evaluación de la Validez Predictiva en la Psicología Jurídica

“…Predictive validity is a type of criterion validity that seeks to predict a situation. A clear example of this validity is the study by Grieger and Hosser (2013) that attempts to determine whether the eight risk factor model for criminal behavior assessed by Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) is useful in predicting recidivism in juvenile delinquents. The study by Grieger and Hosser demonstrates empirically that recidivists subjects with a diagnosis of low recidivism were proportionately fewer than those with a diagnosis of medium and high recidivism.…”

Ocho factores de la conducta criminal: Aplicabilidad en jóvenes mexicanos

“…Al plantear por primera vez el modelo, los autores identificaron los Big Four, es decir, cuatro grandes factores asociados con la conducta delictiva, a saber: historial de conducta criminal, rasgos de personalidad antisocial, pensamiento antisocial y asociación antisocial (Andrews & Bonta, 2010). Posteriormente le sumaron otros cuatro factores con capacidad predictiva moderada: abuso de sustancias, relaciones familiares y de pareja, uso del tiempo libre y situación escolar y laboral (Grieger & Hosser, 2014;Nguyen, Arbach-Lucioni, & Andrés-Pueyo, 2011). Así entonces, el modelo contempla ocho grandes factores (Big Eight), que incluyen tanto factores de riesgo estáticos como dinámicos (James, 2015).…”