Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity

Warner, Koko; Afifi, Tamer

doi:10.1080/17565529.2013.835707

Cited by 255 publications

(223 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The MoAFS stated that it would be very useful to have more frequent updates within the rainy season as well as longer-range forecasts than the current 5 -10 day forecasts (for example, a 2 -3 week forecast). This echoes recent case study findings (Simelton et al, 2013;Warner & Afifi, 2013).…”

Section: What Weather and Climate Information Do Malawi's Ministries supporting

confidence: 69%

Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

et al. 2015

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The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5-10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1-5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2-3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1 -5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6 -20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short-to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors. Policy relevanceFor climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales -sub-annual to short term (1-5 years) to medium term (6 -20 years) -is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.

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Section: What Weather and Climate Information Do Malawi's Ministries supporting

confidence: 69%

Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

et al. 2015

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“…Yet, they are just 'getting by' and can neither get out of poverty, nor reduce their sensitivity to rainfall variability. Some households use migration as an option of 'last resort' (PenningRowsell et al, 2013) to overcome the worst periods of hunger, but their overall situation and the conditions for those 'left behind' actually deteriorate (see also the household profiles by Warner & Afifi, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This has been the central question guiding the 'Where the Rain falls' study (Warner & Afifi, 2014;Warner et al, 2012). The most relevant circumstances that affect environmental migration from northern Bangladesh are sketched in the following.…”

Section: Rainfall Variability Food Security and Migration In Kurigramentioning

confidence: 99%

Clouds gather in the sky, but no rain falls. Vulnerability to rainfall variability and food insecurity in Northern Bangladesh and its effects on migration

Etzold

Ahmed

Hassan³

et al. 2013

Climate and Development

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This article presents empirical evidence on changing rainfall patterns in Kurigram district in northern Bangladesh, on the local people's perception of these changes, and on their decision to migrate, or not, in order to cope with rainfall variability and food insecurity. Our study was conducted as one of eight case studies within the 'Where the Rain Falls' Project. Taking on a social vulnerability perspective, we show that migration from the region is not driven by climatic changes, but rather by the existing livelihood and labour migration systems. First, there is a distinct seasonality and thus rainfall dependency of rural livelihoods, which makes the rural population sensitive to changing rainfall patterns. Second, rainfall variability and food security are closely intertwined. Third, the distinct rhythm in the labour migration system is largely structured by seasonal hunger (Monga) in northern Bangladesh and by the demand for agricultural labourers and informal workers at the respective destinations. Fourth, persisting local patterns of social inequality shape both people's condition of food security and their decision to migrate for work or not. We conclude that, instead of climate change, social inequality and food insecurity as well as structural economic differences are the strongest drivers of migration inside Bangladesh.

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“…Migration is hence re-conceptualized as a positive form of adaptation and research efforts are re-directed towards understanding "the role of migration in managing risks associated with changing environmental conditions" (Warner et al 2014: 1 see also Black, et al, 2011;Hugo 2008;Piguet 2010).…”

Section: Agents Of Development / Agents Of Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%