Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

Abstract

The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5-10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1-5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2-3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1 -5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6 -20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short-to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors. Policy relevanceFor climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales -sub-annual to short term (1-5 years) to medium term (6 -20 years) -is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.

Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of ‘serious games’ for engagement and decision-making

“…In other words, players' understanding, and application of real-world climate change management options can be used as a proxy for social learning. Games can also generate data to feed into wider monitoring and evaluation frameworks, generating evidence on the ability to process climate information for effective decision-making, and to test effectiveness of other capacity building efforts (Vincent et al 2017). One can play the same game with a group of decision-makers before and after a training workshop and note the results for example.…”

On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

“…Consequently, recent years have seen an escalating demand for information about the local impacts of future climate change to guide climate resilience efforts in development practice (Frankel‐Reed, Fröde‐Thierfelder, Porsché, Eberhardt, & Svendsen, ; Mitchell & Maxwell, ; The White House, ; UNDP‐UNEP, ). Prompted by the emergent focus on adaptation following the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (Burton, ; Parry, Arnell, Hulme, Nicholls, & Livermore, ), climate change projections that were originally developed to guide policy‐makers regarding greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are now in demand to inform highly localized and detailed adaptation decisions (Villanueva & Sword‐Daniels, ; Vincent et al, ).…”

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

“…Sectoral policy documents were developed before the policy development process was sensitised to climate change vulnerability and impacts, with iterations of sectoral policies not including all of the actions and priority areas reported on through climate change reporting via NAPAs and (I)NDCs. Problems of limited policy coherence are exacerbated as the long-term impacts of climate change are poorly understood at a national level (Jones et al 2015;Vincent et al 2017) and are not explicitly addressed in policy formulation. Chronological analysis combined with keyword analysis indicates that sectoral policies have been used as a valuable basis for developing climate change strategies, policies and actions (Table 3).…”

“…This can partly be explained by the limited awareness of longer-term climate scenarios /projections to inform planning across all government departments in the study countries (e.g. Vincent et al 2017). Longer term adaptation strategies were more diverse, but less regularly mentioned, than short-term event-based issues that have a more immediate risk and disaster management need in both agriculture and water policies.…”