Where Should We Intervene?: Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Offense Recidivism

Hanson, R. Karl; Harris, Andrew

doi:10.4135/9781452229454.n23

Cited by 316 publications

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“…This is especially the case when defining offending productivity in terms of the number of crime events. Actuarial tools and clinical assessment protocols used to assess the risk of reoffending have described the "high-risk" sex offenders as being young, single or never been married, having alcohol and/or drug-related problems, showing a lengthy criminal record, criminally versatile, using violence in the commission of sex crime, while targeting extrafamilial or stranger victims (e.g., Epperson et al, 2003;Hanson & Thornton, 2000;Hanson & Harris, 2000;Quinsey et al, 1998). Hence, actuarial tools present the high-risk sex offenders as someone with low conventional capital and a tendency to get caught for various criminal behaviors, including sex offending 17 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Lussier

Bouchard

Beauregard

2011

Journal of Criminal Justice

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Purpose: The current study examines significant variations in criminal achievement across sex offenders. To examine the "successful" sex offender, the study proposes a concept of achievement in sexual offending defined as the ability to maximize the payoffs of a crime opportunity while minimizing the costs. Methods: The study is based on a sample of convicted adult male sex offenders using retrospective longitudinal data. Results: The study findings show a wide variation in criminal achievement, a variation that is not correlated with the severity of sentences meted out or the actuarial risk scores obtained by these offenders. Those offenders who specialize in sex crimes were shown to be the most productive and least detected offenders. Two types of successful offenders emerge, the first relying on his conventional background in targeting a victim that can be repeatedly abused for a long period without detection. The second is a younger offender that is successful in the sense of being able to complete aggressions on multiple victims. Conclusions: Results suggest that the successful sex offender is not "detected" once he enters the criminal justice system, nor is he handled in a way that may deter him from sexually reoffending in the future.REFERENCE: Lussier, P., Bouchard, M. & Beauregard, E. (2011). Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the "successful" sex offender. Journal of Criminal Justice, 39,[433][434][435][436][437][438][439][440][441][442][443][444] Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to P. Lussier, Pavillon Charles-De Koninck, 1030, ave. des Sciences-Humaines, Quebec, Quebec G1V 0A6, Canada. Tel.: +1 418 656 2131x5978. E-mail address: patrick.lussier@svs.ulaval.ca. PATTERNS OF CRIMINAL ACHIEVEMENT IN SEXUAL OFFENDING 2Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the "successful" sex offender After more than 50 years of research on sexual recidivism, researchers have been unable to provide a formal evidence-based explanation of the criminal activity of sexual offenders. The risk factor approach taken and pursued over the years have restrained possibilities of understanding the criminal career dynamics of individuals committing sex offences and recent empirical studies have emphasized the need to correct this (e.g., Amirault & Lussier, 2011; Lussier & Davies, in press;Lussier, Tzoumakis, Cale, & Amirault, 2010). In that regard, this study is a departure from past research on this issue. The aim is not to identify a predictive model of sexual recidivism but rather to understand what is being predicted and who is being identified in the process. Sexual recidivism or in more technical terms, sexual rearrest and sexual reconviction, have become the gold standard measures to determine risk. While researchers have acknowledged that "official recidivism" carries an important limitation (i.e., it measures official reoffending or the likelihood or being caught, again), it has served to establish the risk of recidivism, the prevalen...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Lussier

Bouchard

Beauregard

2011

Journal of Criminal Justice

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“…This model rnay hold some intuitive appeal for those theorists who have recently expressed dissatisfaction with the traditional view that risk factors are either static or dynamic (e.g., Hanson & Harris, 2000;Quinsey et al, 1998). Additionally, the model may yield dividends in a practical setting (e.g., parole supervision) in ternis of developing measures that take into account the differential rate of change among certain dynamic risk factors.…”

Section: Defininci Static and Dvnamic Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the other extreme are risk factors that can change rapidly within days, hours or even minutes. These factors have been labeled precipitating labile events (Zamble & Quinsey, 1997), acute dynarnic risk factors (Hanson & Harris, 2000) and proximal anlecedents . Typically, these variables are difficult to predict, originate in the environment (e-g., wife dies in a car accident), and occur in close temporal proximity to the event of interest (e.g., recidivism) .…”

Section: Defininci Static and Dvnamic Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

Brown

Amand

Zamble

2009

Law and Human Behavior

137

236

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A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73– .87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

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“…For example, Hanson & Harris (2000) present data that demonstrate dynamic variables such as criminal attitudes, social influence, and hostility are related to sexual recidivism. Although researchers are identifying important dynamic variables that should be taken into account when evaluating risk, only a small number of such measures are currently being developed and these remain in their infancy.…”

Section: Importance Of Dynamic Risk Variablesmentioning

confidence: 84%

Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations: Empirical Evidence, Strategies for Professionals, and Research Directions.

Miller

Amenta

Conroy

2005

Law and Human Behavior

106

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Several states have passed civil commitment laws that allow the precautionary detention of sex offenders who have completed their criminal sentences. Over 2,500 sex offenders have been committed across states with such statutes and several thousand more sex offenders have been evaluated. Most statutes call for an evaluation of risk by a mental health professional and, although each state statute is worded differently, three main elements common to sexually violent predator evaluations are used to guide evaluators: mental abnormality, volitional capacity, and likelihood of future sexual violence. The current article presents empirical evidence for the main tenants of these forensic evaluations, provides recommendations for evaluators in light of current limitations of evidence, and offers suggestions for future research in this area of forensic assessment.

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Where Should We Intervene?: Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Offense Recidivism

Cited by 316 publications

References 0 publications

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations: Empirical Evidence, Strategies for Professionals, and Research Directions.

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