Where Offenders Choose to Attack: A Discrete Choice Model of Robberies in Chicago*

Abstract

Why do robbers choose a particular area to commit an offense? Do they rob close to home? Do they search for areas with suitable and attractive targets? What keeps them away from certain areas? To answer these questions, a model is developed of how robbers choose target areas. The model draws on various theoretical and empirical traditions, which include environmental criminology, journey to crime research, gang research, and social disorganization theory. Testing the model on cleared robbery cases in Chicago in the years 1996–1998, we demonstrate that robbery location choice is related to characteristics of target areas, to areas where offenders live, to joint characteristics of the resident and target areas, and to characteristics of the offenders themselves. The presence of illegal markets and other crime generators and crime attractors make areas attractive for robbers, whereas collective efficacy seems to keep them out. Distance as well as racial and ethnic segregation restrict the mobility of offenders.

Studying neighborhood crime across different macro spatial scales: The case of robbery in 4 cities

“…Given the spatial patterning of offenders, in which it is not unusual to travel 1-2 miles to commit a robbery, this should not be surprising (Bernasco 2010;Bernasco and Block 2009). We suggested in hypothesis 1 that in a relatively low micro-environment population, offenders may be more likely to travel longer distances.…”

Crime displacement: what we know, what we don’t know, and what it means for crime reduction

“…Considering offender mobility, spatial econometric studies of offender spatial decision making (e.g., Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta 2005;Bernasco and Block 2009;Johnson and Summers 2014) suggest that, all other things being equal, offenders prefer to commit offenses close to their home location, even for extreme events such as riots (Baudains et al 2013). Moreover, the analysis of offender crime series suggests that, for acquisitive crimes at least, most offenses are committed near to each other (e.g., Johnson 2009).…”

Outbound offending: The journey to crime and crime sprees

“…The use of these pairs is not new (also see Bernasco & Block, 2009;Hodgson & Costello, 2006;Kleemans, 1996). We first consider outbound offending in general, i.e.…”