Where is the Evidence? Comparing the Effects of Evidence Strength and Demographic Characteristics on Plea Discounts

Petersen, Kevin; Redlich, Allison D.; Wilson, David B.

doi:10.1007/s10940-022-09555-8

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Yet, certainly it is more reasonable to suspect a driver of being impaired when they are failing to maintain a single lane, traveling exactly at the posted speed limit and running stop signs than when they are simply driving at the posted speed limit. Indeed, studies in other areas of criminal justice have demonstrated that the strength and amount of evidence is related to outcomes such as jury verdicts (Devine et al ., 2009) and plea bargains (Petersen et al ., 2022).…”

Section: Considering Reasonable Suspicionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An experimental look at reasonable suspicion and police discretion

McLean

Nix

Stoughton

et al. 2023

PIJPSM

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PurposeThis study aims to demonstrate the need for further examination of legal judgments and the exercise of discretion in policing.Design/methodology/approachA factorial vignette survey with traffic stop scenarios based on US Court of Appeals decisions was administered to 396 police officers across six states. Officers were asked to indicate their assessment of the presence of reasonable suspicion and the likelihood that they would extend the stop for investigatory purposes.FindingsOfficers' reasonable suspicion judgments are significantly influenced by the vignette facts and align with court ruling expectations. However, even in the presence of reasonable suspicion, responses indicate a limited use of officer discretion to extend the stop.Originality/valueAnalyses of officer decision-making often rely on large datasets with easy indicators of location, officer demographics and citizen demographics, but rarely consider the facts of individual cases. This study suggests more experimental research is needed to consider the impact of case facts on officer judgments and discretionary activity.

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Section: Considering Reasonable Suspicionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An experimental look at reasonable suspicion and police discretion

McLean

Nix

Stoughton

et al. 2023

PIJPSM

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“…A key variable in the SoT model—the probability of conviction at trial—is heavily influenced by the strength of available evidence. Prosecutors have been shown in order to offer smaller plea discounts when evidence is perceived as strong (Bushway et al., 2014), and when more evidence is available (Petersen et al., 2022). Similarly, both guilty and innocent defendants plead guilty at higher rates when the evidence against them is strong and there is a high probability of conviction at trial (Luna & Redlich, 2020; Tor et al., 2010; Wilford, Wells, et al., 2021; Zimmerman & Hunter, 2018).…”

Section: Shadow‐of‐the‐trial Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of confessions on misconduct and guilty pleas in exonerations: Implications for discovery policies

Bettens,

Redlich

2023

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research SummaryUsing data from the National Registry of Exonerations, we examined how the presence of confession evidence impacts prosecutors’ tendency in order to (1) commit misconduct in any form (e.g., permitting perjury and witness tampering) and (2) specifically withhold exculpatory evidence (i.e., evidence favorable to the defense). We assess these relationships particularly in the context of wrongful convictions by guilty plea from an innocent individual (i.e., false guilty plea [FGP]) or guilty verdict at trial. We show the presence of false confessions increased the likelihood of (1) prosecutors engaging in misconduct generally and (2) prosecutors withholding exculpatory evidence specifically. However, the presence of prosecutorial misconduct and withholding evidence decreased the odds of a wrongful conviction via an FGP compared to wrongful conviction via guilty verdict.Policy ImplicationsPolicies encouraging prosecutorial transparency and accountability are needed in order to better identify misconduct when it occurs, particularly in the context of guilty pleas. Open‐file discovery policies, which aim to provide full transparency, may prevent prosecutors from intentionally or unintentionally withholding evidence when faced with strong evidence like a confession, which could ultimately decrease the potential of wrongful conviction.

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Where is the Evidence? Comparing the Effects of Evidence Strength and Demographic Characteristics on Plea Discounts

Cited by 2 publications

References 71 publications

An experimental look at reasonable suspicion and police discretion

An experimental look at reasonable suspicion and police discretion

The effects of confessions on misconduct and guilty pleas in exonerations: Implications for discovery policies

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