Where does the link between atmospheric moisture transport and extreme precipitation matter?

Gimeno‐Sotelo, Luis; Gimeno, Luis

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100536

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Over the peninsular region, although VIMT anomalies show significant positive changes during the days of peak T w intensity (and annual maxima T w max ), the magnitude and spatial extents of significant positive VIMT anomalies are larger during the EP events (shown using darker shades). The difference in VIMT anomalies during the hot days versus EP events might be a consequence of the influence of the low‐level jets, which are prominent in the monsoon‐dominated areas of South Asia from June to August and are a key contributor to global moisture transport (Gimeno‐Sotelo & Gimeno, 2023).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observational Evidence Reveals Compound Humid Heat Stress‐Extreme Rainfall Hotspots in India

Ganguli,

Merz

2024

Earth's Future

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Sequential climate hazards, such as “warm and wet” compound extremes, have direct societal implications for highly urbanized regions and agricultural production. While typically extreme temperatures and rainfall are inversely correlated during the summer, extreme humid heatwaves often lead to atmospheric instability and moisture convection, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation (EP). Little is known about how heatwave characteristics, such as peak intensity and duration, influence EP at a regional scale. Using high‐resolution, sub‐daily station‐based observational records over five decades (1971–2021) across India, we find a robust increase in the frequency of compound humid heat‐peak precipitation events in all seasons. Our sensitivity analysis of the impact of humid heatwave characteristics on the subsequent sub‐daily rainfall extremes reveals that, with an increase in peak heatwave intensity for a given heatwave duration, >50% of sites show an increase in the magnitude of rainfall; conversely, with an increase in heatwave duration for a given peak heatwave intensity, around 67% sites show a decline in sub‐daily rainfall extremes. An asymmetrical shift toward above‐average precipitation extremes in response to humid heat stress is mainly clustered around low‐elevation, densely populated coastal areas and the irrigation‐intensive Indo‐Gangetic Plains.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observational Evidence Reveals Compound Humid Heat Stress‐Extreme Rainfall Hotspots in India

Ganguli,

Merz

2024

Earth's Future

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We thus call for caution when generalizing the results. This is because the key ingredients that dictate rainfall processes may differ across storms or geographic regions (Gimeno‐Sotelo & Gimeno, 2023; Tian et al., 2023; G. Wang et al., 2017). For instance, extreme rainfall is more frequently dominated by the influence of moisture transport (e.g., atmospheric rivers, tropical cyclones, low‐level jets) over the extratropical regions, including the Asian monsoon region (He et al., 2015), Mediterranean (Zappa et al., 2013), Australia (Nie et al., 2020), North Atlantic (Pfahl & Wernli, 2012), and North America (Gao et al., 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Understanding the processes of rainfall extremes and their response to anthropogenic climate change is pivotal for improved adaptation of unprecedented flood hazards around the world. Here we take the record‐breaking 20 July 2021 storm over central China as an example. We investigate the response of this particular storm to atmospheric warming (i.e., increase in air temperature) and wetting (i.e., increase in atmospheric moisture content) based on a series of convection‐permitting model simulations. Our results show non‐monotonic changes of the space‐time rainfall variability to either increased temperature or atmospheric moisture content. The most extreme rain rate is produced when relative humidity is increased by 20%–40% or temperature is increased by less than 2°C. The non‐monotonic rainfall response is more clearly revealed at fine spatial (100–1,000 km2) and temporal scales (less than 6 hr) rather than over the entire domain (∼104 km2) and aggregated over the storm duration (around 2 days). This is mainly attributable to the distinct feedbacks from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., moisture convergence and interaction with regional topography) rather than regulated by thermodynamic changes alone. Atmospheric warming poses notable changes in the vertical structure of storm cells, contributing to reduced areal reduction factors at small spatial scales and short durations, while atmospheric wetting additionally modifies storm evolution properties. Our modeling analyses challenge the existing practices for hydrologic designs under a changing climate, highlighting particular vulnerability for cities or small basins to short‐duration rainfall extremes and the resultant flash flood hazards.

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“…Additionally, the general existence of monsoon troughs in the low-level wind fields over Bangladesh promotes the convergence of moisture-laden southwesterlies along the windward side of Meghalaya plateau, which produces enhanced PR over the terrain (Fujinami et al, 2011). Over the Asian monsoon regions, the low-level jets apparently influence the relationship between IVT and the occurrence of extreme PR (Gimeno-Sotelo & Gimeno, 2023). A recent study has also found a prominent spatial variation in the distribution of monsoon PR with corresponding changes in topography, which has indicated that high values over the northern part of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, moderate over the Sikkim Himalayas and lower values over Gangetic West Bengal (Biswas & Bhattacharya, 2023a).…”

Section: Rank Model Codementioning

confidence: 99%

“…They have diagnosed that higher and heavier PR are associated with intense IVT. The IVT strongly influences the occurrence of extreme PR events over the subtropical region, while it is negligible over the tropical region and moderate over the extratropical region (Gimeno-Sotelo & Gimeno, 2023). The Clausius-Clapeyron scaling elaborates the direct effects of global temperature rise on the rise in atmospheric humidity level (Allen & Ingram, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the identification of seasonal trends, dependency and driving forces of precipitation and vertically integrated vapour transport over Northeast India

Biswas

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The vertically integrated horizontal vapour transport (IVT) accompanied by westerlies and southwesterlies mainly contributes as a distant source of moisture to the seasonal precipitation (PR). The moisture transport and PR patterns across the eastern Himalayas (Sikkim, northern Sub‐Himalayan West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh) are strongly modulated by the orographic setup, local land‐atmospheric factors and teleconnection with climate indices of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This study elaborates on the changing patterns of PR and IVT, changes in IVT contribution to the seasonal PR under the nonstationary framework and evaluates the nonlinear dependency on local and distant drivers with piecewise regression model. Asymmetries in significant seasonal trends are conspicuous due to multi‐altitude interactions. Strong declining trend over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh is evident for PR with concurrent rising trend over the Meghalaya plateau. The IVT signals show a significant decline in post‐monsoon (October and November) and winter (December to February) across Assam Plain. The increase in mean IVT contributes significantly to seasonal PR. Significant decline in the contribution of heavy IVT to winter PR is observed over Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and part of Assam. Surface 2 m temperature and net thermal radiation exhibit contrasting influence on seasonal PR. IVT shows mainly positive association with surface 2 m dew point temperature and latent heat flux across the eastern Himalayas. NINO3.4 index exhibits strong negative influence on post‐monsoon PR. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is strongly associated with summer (March to May) PR. Monsoon (June to September) IVT is negatively influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the Sub‐Himalayan West Bengal, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand. The Southern Oscillation Index is negatively linked with summer IVT. The combination of local driving forces mainly controls the seasonal PR and IVT across all seasons. Besides, distant drivers are prominent in monsoon and post‐monsoon. This study reveals insights into recent changes of PR and IVT, their contribution to seasonal water resources in the eastern Himalayas and the controlling strength of local land‐atmosphere feedback mechanism and distant land‐ocean coupling drivers under nonstationary climate.

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Where does the link between atmospheric moisture transport and extreme precipitation matter?

Cited by 17 publications

References 42 publications

Observational Evidence Reveals Compound Humid Heat Stress‐Extreme Rainfall Hotspots in India

Observational Evidence Reveals Compound Humid Heat Stress‐Extreme Rainfall Hotspots in India

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

On the identification of seasonal trends, dependency and driving forces of precipitation and vertically integrated vapour transport over Northeast India

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