When will autonomous ships arrive? A technological forecasting perspective

Abstract

Autonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies are data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS precision required for autonomous mooring is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a range of 2026-2041, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2037 and 2101. Finally, the cost of a medium speed diesel engine and an LT-PEMFC Fuel Cell will be approximately equal somewhere between 2025 and 2060.

On the way to autonomous navigation

“…Экономическая выгода для судовладельца базируется на сокращении численности персонала, обеспечивающего движение судна и отмене затрат по обеспечению экипажа на борту судна. Доля оплаты труда экипажей судов в международных морских перевозках в зависимости от класса и флага судна, а также типа перевозок составляет от «30 % (контейнеровозы, крупные суда)» до «70 % (портовые буксиры, малые суда)» от прямых расходов на перевозки 3 4 Там же. 5 Там же.…”

“…Наконец, стоимость среднеоборотного дизельного двигателя и двигателя на топливных элементах сравняется ориентировочно между 2025 и 2060 гг. [4].…”

A Cross-Domain Scientometric Analysis of Situational Awareness of Autonomous Vehicles With Focus on the Maritime Domain

“…Considering the above, the aim of this article is to analyze and map research trends in situational awareness of autonomous vehicles. While our scope includes all transportation modes, we will focus on the maritime domain, as the implementation of autonomous solutions in commercial shipping is lagging behind other modes of transportation [19]. Certain existing solutions and insights obtained in other domains could potentially be adopted in other ones [20] including maritime, perhaps with necessary modifications [21].…”

Costs and Benefits of Autonomous Shipping—A Literature Review

“…They are expected to operate in one of four degrees of autonomy, dynamically switching between them, as presented in Table 1. The classification was prepared only for a regulatory scoping exercise aimed at identifying legal barriers to MASS implementation, but is also used for other purposes [2,3].Currently, the autonomous ships are not allowed for international shipping due to law regulations [4][5][6][7].…”