When the British ‘Tommy’ went to war, public opinion followed

Abstract

This article seeks to outline how public opinion changed over the course of the government's announcement of 2nd Gulf War in Iraq until the scandal over the alleged 'sexed-up' Downing Street intelligence dossier. Using quantitative analysis of opinion poll data, together with in-depth interviews with journalists to show how the media were complicit in providing a positive spin for the government's stance on war, the authors conclude that the positive change in public opinion once the British soldiers were deployed occurred through one of the following mechanisms: 1) a patriotic effect, 2) government communication expertise and the management of a complicit news media, 3) the public basked in the reflected glory of the initially successful military or 4) some combination of the above.

A War Too Far? Bush, Iraq, and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

“…Indeed, in Britain and Australia, public opinion was against the war before it had even started. Yet by the linking of the issue with two long‐established, dominant, and popular political leaders—Tony Blair in Britain and John Howard in Australia—public opinion swung firmly behind the government in each country (Baines and Worcester 2005; Goot 2003). Even though there were major doubts expressed after the war about the morality of the decision, both leaders, like George W. Bush, were easily reelected in their respective postwar elections 16…”

Examining the effects of political information and intervention stages on public support for military interventions: A panel experiment

“…People are also more likely to favor multilateral military action as their country is not obliged to bear all of the costs. For instance, a large number of opinion surveys conducted before the United Kingdom joined the United States in the Iraq War found that UK public support for the war hinged on UN approval and whether UN inspectors could find proof of weapons of mass destruction (Baines and Worcester, 2005).…”

“…Several scholars point out that support for an intervention already in progress may differ significantly from support observed in the pre-intervention period (for example, Russett and Nincic, 1976;Russett, 1990;Baum, 2002;Lai and Reiter, 2005). For instance, some scholars suggest that many people in Britain who may have opposed the decision to take part in the US-led war against Iraq felt obliged to show support for British troops once the war began, leading to a sudden upward shift in UK public opinion (see Baines and Worcester, 2005;Lewis et al, 2005, p. 52). In fact, a vast body of research finds that political leaders enjoy spikes in their approval ratings immediately following a highprofile foreign policy event, as in the case of a military intervention, even when the level of public support has been low just before the event (for example, Mueller, 1973;Brody and Shapiro, 1989;Parker, 1995).…”