A War Too Far? Bush, Iraq, and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

Following 9‐11 and the decision to go to war with Iraq, the Bush administration had to gain public support to legitimize its policy. This was achieved by priming the public on Iraq and by associating the Iraqi regime with terrorism, views about which most voters had clearly defined, preexisting views. In the run‐up to the 2004 presidential election, the Iraq issue also became closely associated with Bush’s personal qualities as president. Analyses of the 2004 American National Election Study show that voters were primed on Iraq through television coverage. Evaluations of Bush’s personal qualities declined between 2000 and 2004, and judgments about his honesty and intelligence in 2004 were significantly related to opinions about Iraq. Iraq had an important influence in promoting turnout in the election, which increased Bush’s vote, and in shaping the election outcome. However, the influence of the Iraq issue was indirect and mediated by personal evaluations of George W. Bush.

Crisis, charisma, values, and voting behavior in the 2004 presidential election

“…Pillai & Meindl (1998) suggest that "charismatic attributions may be sustained over a period of time only through the successful resolution of crises" (p. 664). In the context of an election when voters compare the incumbent to the challenger they are more likely to be dissatisfied with the unresolved crisis (McAllister, 2006). These findings are consistent with Pillai & Meindl's (1998) study, where they found a negative correlation between perceptions of crisis and the emergence of charisma of the current unit leaders because the unit members were still experiencing the crisis.…”

“…In fact during the presidential election campaign, opinions on the war in Iraq specifically, were evenly divided and there was a decline in the approval of Bush. The 2004 American National Election Study reported that 56% disapproved of Bush's handling of the war, 56% felt the war was not worth the cost, and with respect to the threat of terrorism after the war 35% felt it stayed the same and 39% felt it had increased (McAllister, 2006). Such perceptions reflect the high impact events and threatening environment that define crisis (Pearson & Clair, 1998).…”

“Shaping history” or “Riding the wave”?: President Bush's influence on the public opinion of terrorism, homeland security, & crime

“…Other research supports Bush's ability to influence popular support for his policies. McAllister (2006) found that Bush was able to mobilize support for the war against Iraq by linking or associating Iraq with terrorism and portraying it as a threat to U.S. security, especially by describing the "axis of evil." He and his administration was able to mobilize a majority of the public to support the war against Iraq.…”

The Rhetoric of Revisionism: Presidential Rhetoric about the Vietnam War since 9/11

“…By the time of the Iraq invasion in 2003, President Bush was finding it much more challenging to impose the World War II analogy and to resist the one about Vietnam. Iraq offered no reference point, such as 9/11, despite Bush initially very successfully linking Iraq with terrorism and even 9/11 itself (McAllister ), and because no weapons of mass destruction were found there following the invasion, the threat that Iraq had purportedly posed still remained unclear. Moreover, as the insurgency then took hold, the president had to face more questions about what some clearly saw as worrying comparisons with the U.S. troops getting bogged down in a quagmire just like in Vietnam.…”