When Do States Respond to Low Fertility? Contexts of State Concern in Wealthier Countries, 1976-2011

Abstract

Since the 1970s, expressions of state concern over low fertility have greatly increased among wealthier countries. This study asks to what extent this increase is explained by demographic factors, national-level economic and political factors, and processes of international diffusion and changing international norms. Analyses integrate the world polity literature on global policy diffusion with a social problems approach to examine international diffusion of state concern among more powerful members of the world polity, a process that can produce changes in international policy consensus. Comparisons of the characteristics of states that do and do not express concern over low fertility find that among wealthier “first-world” countries, state concern has become more responsive to fertility rates: fertility rates are not significantly associated with concern early in the study period, but are strongly associated with concern later in the study period. There is no evidence that integration into the world polity is associated with concern in these countries, and some evidence that less integrated countries are more likely to express concern, suggesting that processes shaping the diffusion of state concern may differ from those identified as shaping policy diffusion in the existing literature. Among “second-world” former Eastern bloc countries, different patterns of associations reflect different political histories: concern is associated only with demographic factors, with no significant change in this association over time.

Political Islam, Marriage, and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

“…Although not always aware of one another's work, several scholars from different countries published bleak views of population decline before World War II and before the formulation of the idea of a demographic transition by Notestein (1945;Kirk 1996). The more recent emergence of sustained below-replacement fertility in several societies has contributed to producing a second wave in this debate (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002;McDonald 2006;Morgan and Taylor 2006;Marshall 2015). Religion has been seen as holding a central role in the politics of "family decline" (Brooks 2002).…”