When climate change is not blamed: the politics of disaster attribution in international perspective

Abstract

Analyzing the politics and policy implications in Brazil of attributing extreme weather events to climate change, we argue for greater place-based sensitivity in recommendations for how to frame extreme weather events relative to climate change. Identifying geographical limits of current recommendations to emphasize the climate role in such events, we explore Brazilian framings of the two tragic national disasters, as apparent in newspaper coverage of climate change. We find that a variety of contextual factors compel environmental leaders and scientists in Brazil to avoid and discourage highlighting the role of climate change in national extreme events. Against analysts' general deficit-finding assumptions, we argue that the Brazilian framing tendency reflects sound strategic, socio-environmental reasoning, and discuss circumstances in which attributing such events to climate change-and, by extension, attribution science-can be ineffective for policy action on climate change and other socio-environmental issues in need of public pressure and preventive action. The case study has implications beyond Brazil by begging greater attention to policies and politics in particular places before assuming that attribution science and discursive emphasis on the climate role in extreme events are the most strategic means of achieving climate mitigation and disaster preparedness. Factors at play in Brazil might also structure extreme events attribution politics in other countries, not least some other countries of the global South.

Politics of attributing extreme events and disasters to climate change

“…In the wake of the 2011 rain‐induced flooding and mudslides in the mountains of the state of Rio de Janeiro, for instance—one of Brazil's most costly and tragic rain‐induced disasters in recent decades—Brazilian climate scientists pushed back against climate‐centric framings. Their headline‐disseminated message asserted unequivocally that “Warming did not Cause [the] Tragedy” (Lahsen et al, 2020, p. 219). As they rightly noted, events like these have been occurring for decades, and yet national mapping and early warning systems were persistently left sub‐par.…”

Circular Economy: a Comparison Between the Case of Singapore and France

“…6 . The most important factor to establish a CE in all of its aspects is financial aids (Lahsen et al 2020 ). The Singapore zero waste program has two sections: legislation and policies from the government and zero waste incentives.…”

The ambivalent role of environmental NGOs in climate communication

“…Social scientists go further in their critique and call attention to the political nature of event attribution [Lahsen, Azevedo Couto and Lorenzoni, 2020;Lahsen and Ribot, in review]. Lahsen and colleagues argue that "analytic frames that indicate different causal chains thus shape how environmental damages and threats are viewed, and whether and among whom they do or 'should' prompt remedial action, and of what kind.…”

“…Eventually, there is evidence that stressing climate change may not always be the most promising means to achieve climate mitigation. Based on an insightful small data case study from Brazil, Lahsen, Azevedo Couto and Lorenzoni [2020] have argued for greater place-based sensitivity in climate attribution and communication.…”

“…I suggest that this advocacy, while aimed to raise awareness by attributing weather events to climate change, may not resonate with the lived experiences of individuals and communities, not even in geographically vulnerable areas. Applying critique of "climate reductionism" [Hulme, 2011] and disaster attribution [Lahsen, Azevedo Couto and Lorenzoni, 2020;Lahsen and Ribot, in review] to the role of NGOs, this commentary looks at local discourses on climate change to identify possible adverse effects of climate-centric causal attribution.…”