What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?

Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Frith, S. M.; Hurwitz, M. M.; Kawa, S. R.; Jackman, Charles H.; Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, J. E.; Pawson, Steven; Stolarski, R. S.; Velders, G. J. M.

doi:10.5194/acp-9-2113-2009

Cited by 178 publications

(182 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…EESC is a modeled representation of the amount of chlorine and bromine in the atmosphere available to destroy stratospheric ozone at a given time and location, based on measurements of ozone-depleting substances in the troposphere, age of air, and the fractional release rates of chlorine and bromine from various chemical constituents (Newman et al, 2007). Our best current understanding, as represented in chemistry climate models, predicts that stratospheric ozone varies linearly with EESC (e.g., Newman et al, 2009). Therefore, when we fit a data record using the EESC as a regression parameter, we are testing the degree to which the data are following the model predictions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 merged profile ozone data set

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The combined record of total and profile ozone measurements from the solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 series of instruments, known as the SBUV Merged Ozone Data (MOD) product, constitutes the longest satellite-based ozone time series from a single instrument type and as such plays a key role in ozone trend analyses.Following the approach documented in to analyze the merging uncertainties in the MOD total ozone record, we use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the potential for uncertainties in the calibration and drift of individual instruments in the profile ozone merged data set. We focus our discussion on the trends and associated merging uncertainty since 2001 in an effort to verify the start of ozone recovery as predicted by chemistry climate models. We find that merging uncertainty dominates the overall estimated uncertainty when considering only the 15 years of data since 2001. We derive trends versus pressure level for the MOD data set that are positive in the upper stratosphere as expected for ozone recovery. These trends appear to be significant when only statistical uncertainties are included but become not significant at the 2σ level when instrument uncertainties are accounted for. However, when we use the entire data set from 1979 through 2015 and fit to the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine) we find statistically significant fits throughout the upper stratosphere at all latitudes. This implies that the ozone profile data remain consistent with our expectation that chlorine is the dominant ozone forcing term.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 merged profile ozone data set

et al. 2017

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“…Recent studies have shown that during the 1980s the ozone hole over Antarctica expanded rapidly, this expansion slowed in the 1990s. In the last few years this expansion and ozone loss rates have appeared to level off (Newman et al, 2009;Austin et al, 2010). Figure 5 shows an example of ozone maps over the Antarctic during the ozone hole period.…”

Section: Iasi Ozone Retrievalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Antarctic ozone hole as observed by IASI/MetOp for 2008–2010

et al. 2012

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Abstract. In this paper we present a study of the ozone hole as observed by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on-board the MetOp-A European satellite platform from the beginning of data dissemination, August 2008, to the end of December 2010.Here we demonstrate IASI's ability to capture the seasonal characteristics of the ozone hole, in particular during polar night. We compare IASI ozone total columns and vertical profiles with those of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2, also on-board MetOp-A) and electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozone sonde measurements. Total ozone column from IASI and GOME-2 were found to be in excellent agreement for this region with a correlation coefficient of 0.97, for September, October and November 2009. On average IASI exhibits a positive bias of approximately 7 % compared to the GOME-2 measurements over the entire ozone hole period. Comparisons between IASI and ozone sonde measurements were also found to be in good agreement with the difference between both ozone profile measurements being less than ±30 % over the altitude range of 0-40 km. The vertical structure of the ozone profile inside the ozone hole is captured remarkably well by IASI.

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“…Ozone is calculated using the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) (Fleming et al, 2007;Newman et al, 2009) and the NOCAR (Solomon et al, 1998;Portmann et al, 1999) interactive 2-D models with 2006 Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) rates (Sander et al, 2006). Both models successfully capture the processes important for calculating globally averaged total ozone.…”

Section: Ozone Calculationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Options to accelerate ozone recovery: ozone and climate benefits

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and N 2 O are evaluated in terms of effects on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), globally-averaged total column ozone, and radiative forcing through 2100. Due to the established success of the Montreal Protocol, these actions can have only a fraction of the impact on ozone depletion that regulations already in force have had. If all anthropogenic ODS and N 2 O emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1-2% during the period 2030-2100 compared to a case of no additional restrictions. Direct radiative forcing by 2100 would be about 0.23 W/m 2 lower from the elimination of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions and about 0.005 W/m 2 lower from the destruction of the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) bank. Due to the potential impact of N 2 O on future ozone levels, we provide an approach to incorporate it into the EESC formulation, which is used extensively in ozone depletion analyses. The ability of EESC to describe total ozone changes arising from additional ODS and N 2 O controls is also quantified.

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What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?

Cited by 178 publications

References 47 publications

Estimating uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 merged profile ozone data set

Estimating uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 merged profile ozone data set

Antarctic ozone hole as observed by IASI/MetOp for 2008–2010

Options to accelerate ozone recovery: ozone and climate benefits

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