Estimating uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 merged profile ozone data set

Frith, S. M.; Stolarski, R. S.; Kramarova, N. A.; McPeters, Richard D.

doi:10.5194/acp-17-14695-2017

Cited by 32 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The Merged-SWOOSH/GOZCARDS and Merged-SBUV results presented here combine these two pairs of composites , which show slightly different spatial variability (see Fig. S1) Harris et al, 2015;Steinbrecht et al, 2017;Frith et al, 2017). Part of the reason is related to offsets and drifts in the data that continue to be one of the largest remaining sources of uncertainty within, and between, ozone composites Ball et al, 2017;Frith et al, 2017).…”

Section: Merged-swoosh/gozcards Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…S1) Harris et al, 2015;Steinbrecht et al, 2017;Frith et al, 2017). Part of the reason is related to offsets and drifts in the data that continue to be one of the largest remaining sources of uncertainty within, and between, ozone composites Ball et al, 2017;Frith et al, 2017). These artefacts can be largely accounted for using the Bayesian integrated and consolidated (BASIC) methodology developed by Ball et al (2017), which we apply to both pairs of data separately; examples of corrected time series in the lower stratosphere are given in Fig.…”

Section: Merged-swoosh/gozcards Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite a lack of clear recovery in total column ozone, ozone appears to be significantly recovering in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa in multiple ozone composites that merge observations from various space missions, especially at mid-latitudes Laine et al, 2014;WMO, 2014;Tummon et al, 2015;Harris et al, 2015;Steinbrecht et al, 2017;Ball et al, 2017;Frith et al, 2017;Sofieva et al, 2017;Bourassa et al, 2017). Trends are almost always presented as percentage change per decade, which does not illuminate the contribution to the column ozone changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective "ozone layer" around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogeninduced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60 • S and 60 • N outside the polar regions (60-90 • ). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60 • S and 60 • N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recoverPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1380 W. T. Ball et al.: Continuous stratospheric ozone decline ing, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60 • S and 60 • N. We find that total column ozone between 60 • S and 60 • N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

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Section: Merged-swoosh/gozcards Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Merged-swoosh/gozcards Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

et al. 2018

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“…In this work we have analysed Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV; McPeters et al, 2013;Frith et al, 2017) and lidar ozone profile data from the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) as part of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project (http://igaco-o3.fmi.fi/ LOTUS/index.html, last access: 2 May 2018). The project aims at providing support and input to the WMO/UNEP 2018 Ozone Assessment for a better understanding of ozone trends and their significance as a function of altitude and latitude, nearly 20 years after the peak of ozone depleting substances in the stratosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

et al. 2018

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“…Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org /10.5194/acp-2018- (Frith et al, 2017 shown are estimates of the partial column from the Bodeker Scientific Vertical Ozone (BSVertOzone) database, which is based on a compilation of satellite, balloon and ground-based measurements (Bodeker et al, 2013). …”

Section: ) Summary and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of Ozone Return Dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Simulations

Dhomse¹,

Kinnison²,

Chipperfield³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed 5 meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new 10 CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (with a 1-σ uncertainty of [2042][2043][2044][2045][2046][2047][2048][2049][2050][2051][2052]. At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2046 (2042-2050), and at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes in 2034 (2024-2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2062 (2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065)(2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2035October and (2025October and -2040 in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the 15 NH reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5-15 years, depending on the region. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return to 1980 values, at around 2040, while the other half do not reach this value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21 st century. The CCMI models generally agree in 20 their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine, which is the main driver of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse 25 gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10-20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, 30 clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total ...

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Estimating uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 merged profile ozone data set

Cited by 32 publications

References 27 publications

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

Estimates of Ozone Return Dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Simulations

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