What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal

Ikeda, Takayoshi; Cobiac, Linda; Wilson, Nick; Carter, Kristie; Blakely, Tony

doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051196

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The modelling approach used is as described in a published Australian model by Gartner et al 22 Briefly below, features of that model and its previous adaptations for modelling in the New Zealand context are highlighted 16…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But plans for major new strategies to achieve this goal are lacking,15 even though modelling work suggests that these are probably required 16. Given the suggested evidence detailed above (for tobacco as well as alcohol outlets), a potential major endgame strategy could be to substantially reduce the number or density of tobacco retail outlets at a country level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

et al. 2014

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Objective To inform endgame strategies in tobacco control, this study aimed to estimate the impact of interventions that markedly reduced availability of tobacco retail outlets. The setting was New Zealand, a developed nation where the government has a smokefree nation goal in 2025. Methods Various legally mandated reductions in outlets that were phased in over 10 years were modelled. Geographic analyses using the road network were used to estimate the distance and time travelled from centres of small areas to the reduced number of tobacco outlets, and from there to calculate increased travel costs for each intervention. Age-specific price elasticities of demand were used to estimate future smoking prevalence. Results With a law that required a 95% reduction in outlets, the cost of a pack of 20 cigarettes (including travel costs) increased by 20% in rural areas and 10% elsewhere and yielded a smoking prevalence of 9.6% by 2025 (compared with 9.9% with no intervention). The intervention that permitted tobacco sales at only 50% of liquor stores resulted in the largest cost increase (∼$60/ pack in rural areas) and the lowest prevalence (9.1%) by 2025. Elimination of outlets within 2 km of schools produced a smoking prevalence of 9.3%. Conclusions This modelling merges geographic, economic and epidemiological methodologies in a novel way, but the results should be interpreted cautiously and further research is desirable. Nevertheless, the results still suggest that tobacco outlet reduction interventions could modestly contribute to an endgame goal.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

et al. 2014

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“…It has a relatively low smoking prevalence and was the first country to adopt a Government-endorsed ‘endgame’ goal—Smokefree 2025. This is commonly interpreted as achieving a prevalence of <5% by the year 2025 18. If hardening is occurring in the New Zealand population of smokers, it has obvious adverse implications for the likelihood of achieving the Smokefree goal, and for the tobacco control strategies that may need to be implemented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving the tobacco endgame: evidence on the hardening hypothesis from repeated cross-sectional studies in New Zealand 2008–2014

Edwards

Newcombe

et al. 2016

Tob Control

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This study provides evidence that robust tobacco control strategies that result in substantial declines in smoking prevalence are not accompanied by the hypothesised increase in 'hardcore' or 'hardened' smokers who are more addicted and less motivated and able to quit. The findings suggest that there is no need for substantial change in approach to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal on the grounds that the smoker population is becoming increasingly hardened.

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“…Readers are referred to the Gartner and Mendez papers for a full description of the underlying mathematical methods, and to previous work on its application to New Zealand by Ikeda et al 20 and updated in 2014 with new census data on smoking (van der Deen FS, Ikeda T, Cobiac LJ, Wilson N, Blakely T. Projecting future smoking prevalence to 2025 and beyond in New Zealand using smoking prevalence data from the 2013 census. New Zealand Medical Journal, under review ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame

et al. 2014

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What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal

Cited by 20 publications

References 12 publications

Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

Achieving the tobacco endgame: evidence on the hardening hypothesis from repeated cross-sectional studies in New Zealand 2008–2014

Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame

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