Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame

Abstract

Regular increases in tobacco taxation could play an important role in helping to achieve tobacco endgames. However, this modelling in New Zealand suggests that a wider range of tobacco endgame strategies will be needed to achieve a smoke-free goal of less than 5% prevalence for all social groups--a conclusion that could also apply in other countries.

The impact of an increase in excise tax on the retail price of tobacco in New Zealand

“…Our findings should generate concern among NZ policymakers, especially given recent modelling that suggests continued annual 10% tax increases will not realise the 2025 smoke-free national goal 21. Even with annual 10% tax increases, the effect of regular tax increases appears to have declined over time17 18 and suggests on-going excise tax adjustments may benefit from modification.…”

Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

“…Baseline costs were the sum of estimated pack price (mean purchase price of $14.01 for a 20-cigarette pack)26 plus travel costs under current conditions (with all existing outlets). The mean price to purchase a pack of 20 cigarettes in 2011 was back calculated from mid-February 2013 prices in the only national online supermarket ‘Countdown’ (shop.countdown.co.nz/), adjusted for changes in tax and consumer price index.…”

“…This gave final age group-specific elasticities in the range −0.10 to −0.38 for smoking prevalence. Full details on the effects of price elasticity over time were described elsewhere 26. A scenario was also run which involved 50% lower price elasticities, for comparison (scenario F) to allow for the more indirect nature of the price signal associated with vehicle running costs and travel time.…”

What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal

“…In a parallel publication to this paper, we have found that annual 10% increases in tobacco tax out to 2025 may be a sufficiently strong policy to achieve the 2025 goal for non-M aori, but that perhaps 20% annual increases may be needed if the goal is to be reached for M aori. 13 Enhanced mass media campaigns could also play an important role as these are often currently run at fairly minimal levels in most countries (as is the case in New Zealand 14 ). To maximise the simultaneous reductions for population groups with the highest smoking rates (such as M aori in New Zealand) there could be supplementary interventions.…”