What Scenarios Are You Missing? Poststructuralism for Deconstructing and Reconstructing Organizational Futures

Scheele, Ricarda; Kearney, Norman M.; Kurniawan, Jude Herijadi; Schweizer, Vanessa

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-74506-0_8

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Such imaginative storylines are often viewed with skepticism as storylines developed in a group setting makes scenario products subjective, which raises the questions about scientific credibility (Lloyd and Schweizer, 2014) and face validity (Kurniawan and Kundurpi, 2019). Further, Scheele et al (2018) explain that storylines, as a product of scenario exercises, can be influenced simply by using different scenario methods or engaging different groups of participants. However, proponents of imaginative scenarios argue that the "process" of scenario development is more useful than any scenario "product" for integrating and mobilizing knowledge and internalizing different future options that will benefit the participants involved (Anderson, 2010;Swart et al, 2004;Wilkinson and Kupers, 2014;Kitchin and Kneale, 2001).…”

Section: Figure 3 Virtual World Illustrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

Zahraei

Kurniawan

Cheah

2019

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Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

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Section: Figure 3 Virtual World Illustrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

Zahraei

Kurniawan

Cheah

2019

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“…First, more thorough applications of CIB to cases of value change are needed to learn about its benefits and limitations. For example, its application in a multi-stakeholder context could help us understand how to cope with conflicting opinions of the descriptors and judgement affecting value change (a theoretical discussion of potential benefits can be found in Scheele et al (2018). Second, more work is needed to understand the mechanisms of value change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring value change

Wildt

Schweizer

2022

PROM

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This article aims to explore the use of cross-impact balances (CIB) to identify scenarios of value change. The possibility of value change has received little attention in the literature on value-sensitive design (VSD). Examples of value change include the emergence of new values and changes in the relative importance of values. Value change could lead to a mismatch between values embedded in technology and the way they are currently considered in society. Such a mismatch could result in a lack of acceptability of technologies, increasing social tensions and injustices. However, methods to study value change in the VSD literature are rare. CIB is a scenario tool that can study systems characterized by feedback loops that are hard to describe mathematically. This is often the case when aiming to define values and their relationships. We demonstrate the use of CIB to identify scenarios of value change using two cases: digital voice assistants and gene drive organisms. Our findings show that CIB is helpful in building scenarios of value change, even in instances where the operationalization of values is complex. CIB also helps us to understand the mechanisms of value change and evaluate when such mechanisms occur. Finally, we find that CIB is particularly useful for social learning and explanatory modelling. CIB can therefore contribute to the design of value-sensitive technologies.

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“…The behavior and decisions of today's actors is influenced by their perceptions of the future [67]. When scenarios present a pinched aperture on the future, the danger is a pinched repertoire of anticipatory changes in behaviors and decisions.…”

Section: Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding methods, Scheele et al [67] usefully call for an examination of "the particular ontological and epistemological commitments embedded in methodological choices for scenario development". These commitments shape which scenarios are explored and accepted as plausible, tending to privilege predictive over exploratory or normative methods, and model-based over narrative emphasis.…”

Section: Ways Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Discontinuity: Time for a Paradigm Shift in Global Scenario Analysis

Rothman,

Raskin,

Kok

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The evolutionary paths of social-ecological systems comprise periods of structural continuity punctuated by moments of convulsive change. Various forms of systemic global shock could materialize in the coming decades, triggered by the climate crisis, social disruption, economic breakdown, financial collapse, nuclear conflict, or pandemics. The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic stands as a real-time example of an interruption of historic continuity. More hopefully, deep institutional and cultural shifts could rapidly usher in more resilient forms of global civilization. These plausible possibilities challenge scenario studies to spotlight discontinuous futures, an imperative that has not been adequately met. Several factors—for example, gradualist theories of change, scientific reticence, the lure of quantitative tractability, embeddedness in policymaking processes—have rendered mainstream scenario analysis ill-suited to the task. The emphasis on continuity fails to alert decision makers and the public to the risks and opportunities latent in our singular historical moment. A shift to a paradigm that foregrounds discontinuity is long overdue, calling for efforts to broaden the base of persons involved; devote more attention to balancing narrative storytelling and a broader range of quantitative methods; and apply and develop methods to explicitly consider discontinuities in global scenario development.

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What Scenarios Are You Missing? Poststructuralism for Deconstructing and Reconstructing Organizational Futures

Cited by 11 publications

References 34 publications

A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

Exploring value change

Global Discontinuity: Time for a Paradigm Shift in Global Scenario Analysis

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