What is the Impact of Weather Shocks on Prices? : Evidence from Ethiopia

Hill, Ruth Vargas; Fuje, Habtamu

doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9389

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The injera export to North America took off in 2010, and the Ethiopian diaspora is likely to contribute steadily to the growth in exports of teff products. As improvements in market access and better management of drought, the extreme weather conditions would have smaller impacts on teff production (Hill & Fuje, 2018). The export ban on teff was lifted in the mid of 2015, and the link between teff export and its domestic prices is expected to be stronger.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Welfare impacts of increasing teff prices on Ethiopian consumers

Wang

Cakir

2021

Agricultural Economics

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Teff is an ancient grain primarily produced in Ethiopia and providing more than 10% of the total calories consumed in the country. The grain is considered as “super grain” due to its nutritional qualities, and it has seen an increase in its demand and price in recent years. These trends raise public concerns about the affordability of the grain and the prevalence of food insecurity in Ethiopia. Therefore, we investigate the impacts of increasing teff prices on consumers’ welfare by regions. Using data from two waves of the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey 2013–2014 and 2015–2016, we examine the consumption patterns of cereals in Ethiopia and estimate a two‐stage structural demand system. We find that teff is the most own‐price inelastic grain in Ethiopia and an increase of 10% in teff prices will reduce consumer welfare by 0.81, 1.29, and 1.73 Birrs per week for the average rural, town, and urban consumers, respectively. These estimates correspond to 1.64, 2.31, and 2.46% of their weekly food budgets. We also find the negative effects of an increase in teff prices are smaller for the lower‐income groups as they have relatively lower expenditures on teff. Additionally, we analyze the effects of simultaneous changes in wheat and teff prices to measure the extent to which Ethiopia's food policy of distributing subsidized wheat could offset the consumer welfare loss due to an increase in teff prices.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Welfare impacts of increasing teff prices on Ethiopian consumers

Wang

Cakir

2021

Agricultural Economics

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“…In most cases, extreme weather events increase vulnerability of rural households through their effects on crop production and income (Banerjee, 2007;Dercon and Christiaensen, 2007;Mueller and Quisumbing, 2010;Wineman et al, 2017;Hill and Fuje, 2018;McCarthy et al, 2018;Michler et al, 2019). Although limited, empirical evidence suggests that households subject to severe climate events often experience increasing levels of vulnerability related to large losses in agricultural income.…”

Section: Climate Change and Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate resilience in rural Zambia: evaluating farmers’ response to El Niño-induced drought

Alfani¹,

Arslan

McCarthy

et al. 2021

Envir. Dev. Econ.

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This paper aims at identifying whether and how sustainable land management practices and livelihood diversification strategies have contributed to moderating the impacts of the El Niño-related drought in Zambia. This is done using a specifically designed survey called the El Niño Impact Assessment Survey, which is combined with the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys, as well as high resolution rainfall data at the ward level over 34 years. This unique panel data set allows us to control for the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity to understand the impacts of shocks like El Niño, which are expected to become more frequent and severe as a result of climate change. We find that maize yields were substantially reduced and that household incomes were only partially protected from the shock thanks to diversification strategies. Mechanical erosion control measures and livestock diversification emerge as the only strategies that provided yield and income benefits under weather shock.

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“…For each 1 standard deviation increase in warmer temperatures or rainfall, the frequency of interpersonal violence rises by 4 percent and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises by 14 percent (median estimates; . Much price volatility in Africa is driven In Ethiopia, a moderate drought induces a 3-4 percent increase in cereal prices (Hill and Fuje 2018).…”

Section: Box 53 In Africa Shocks Affect Income More Often Than Assets (Continued)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa

Beegle¹,

Christiaensen²

2019

122

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This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

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What is the Impact of Weather Shocks on Prices? : Evidence from Ethiopia

Cited by 7 publications

References 20 publications

Welfare impacts of increasing teff prices on Ethiopian consumers

Welfare impacts of increasing teff prices on Ethiopian consumers

Climate resilience in rural Zambia: evaluating farmers’ response to El Niño-induced drought

Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa

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