What if there had only been half the oil? Rewriting history to envision the consequences of peak oil

Pargman, Daniel; Eriksson, Elina; Höök, Mikael; Tanenbaum, Theresa Jean; Pufal, Marcel; Wangel, Josefin

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2017.06.007

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The natural limits of global energy resources were recognised by the scientific community for the first time in the 1970s (Meadows et al, 1972). Currently, forecasting the peak-oil is a constant challenge for the scientific community (Pargman et al, 2017). Current fossil-fuel-based global energy consumption threshold needs to be lowered, since is has been defined as: environmentally unsustainable (Inman, 2008), (IPCC, 2015), (Gies, 2017), socially unfair (Sovacool et al, 2016) (Eisenstein, 2017), and further economic losses and crises have been forecasted (Hsiang et al, 2017) (Fouquet, 2017) (Inman, 2013).…”

Section: Energy Consumption Boundariesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts

Akizu‐Gardoki

Bueno

Wiedmann

et al. 2018

Journal of Cleaner Production

107

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Historically, the growth of energy consumption has fuelled human development, but this approach is no longer socially and environmentally sustainable. Recent analyses suggest that some individual countries have responded to this issue successfully by decoupling Total Primary Energy Supply from human development increase. However, globalisation and international trade have allowed high-income countries to outsource industrial production to lower income countries, thereby increasingly relying on foreign energy use to satisfy their own consumption of goods and services. Accounting for the import of embodied energy in goods and services, this study proposes an alternative estimation of the Decoupling Index based on the Total Primary Energy Footprint rather than Total Primary Energy Supply. An analysis of 126 countries over the years 2000-2014 demonstrates that previous studies based on energy supply highly overestimated decoupling. Footprint-based results, on the other hand, show an overall decrease of the Decoupling Index for most countries (93 out of 126). There is a reduction of the number of both absolutely decoupled countries (from 40 to 27) and relatively decoupled countries (from 29 to 17), and an increase of coupled countries (from 55 to 80). Furthermore, the study shows that decoupling is not a phenomenon characterising only high-income countries due to improvements in energy efficiency, but is also occurring in countries with low Human Development Index and low energy consumption. Finally, six exemplary countries have been identified, which were able to maintain a continuous decoupling trend. From these exemplary countries, lessons have been identified in order to boost the necessary global decoupling of energy consumption and achieved welfare.

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Section: Energy Consumption Boundariesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts

Akizu‐Gardoki

Bueno

Wiedmann

et al. 2018

Journal of Cleaner Production

107

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…During the last 150 years the world economy has depended on different energy sources. Crude oil and its derivatives have represented during this period the main source of energy, and even though new and more environmentally friendly sources are being developed, the economy is not ready to stop relying on the former. − The exploitation of an oil field goes through different stages, based on the mechanisms involved in the sweeping process: , during primary recovery, oil is driven by natural mechanisms, and subsequently, during secondary recovery, water is usually injected to repressurize the field and sweep part of the trapped oil to the producing wells. However, after these two stages, more than 50% of the original oil in place (OOIP) still remains trapped. , Considering also the facts that the discovery of new fields has steadily decreased during the last 30 years and the demand of energy increases yearly, the only available option is to maximize the performance of existing, mature fields.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surfactant–Polymer Flooding: Influence of the Injection Scheme

Druetta

Picchioni

2018

Energy Fuels

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The use of standard enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques allows for the improvement of oilfield performance after waterflooding processes. Chemical EOR methods modify different properties of fluids and/or rock to mobilize the remaining oil. Moreover, combined techniques have been developed to maximize the performance by using the joint properties of the chemical slugs. A new simulator is presented to study a surfactant–polymer flooding, based on a two-phase, five-component system (aqueous and oleous phases with water, petroleum, polymer, surfactant, and salt) for a 2D reservoir model. The physical properties modified by these chemicals are considered as well as the synergy between them. The analysis of the chemical injection strategy is deemed vital for the success of the operations. This plays a major role in the efficiency of the recovery process, including the order and the time gap between each chemical slug injection. As the latter is increased, the flooding tends to behave as two separate processes. Best results are found when both slugs are injected overlapped, with the polymer in first place which improves the sweeping efficiency of the viscous oil. This simulator can be used to study different chemical combinations and their injection procedure to optimize the EOR process.

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“…During the current crisis, oil-and gas-based economies in particular can thus brace for much lower demand for this reason and potentially until economies begin to recover, particularly because of trends prior to and since COVID-19. Some scholars have for some time discussed the idea of "peak oil demand" as an empirical construction of the lives of commodity-dependent countries (Pargman et al, 2017). Unlike this idea that was coined by Marion Hubert, which represents a bell curve of rising production and period of maximum extraction point of petroleum, after which a terminal decline sets in, this paper complicates this idea a bit more (Kennedy, 2014).…”

Section: Triple Crisis Of Debtmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Some scholars have for some time discussed the idea of “peak oil demand” as an empirical construction of the lives of commodity-dependent countries (Pargman et al , 2017). Unlike this idea that was coined by Marion Hubert, which represents a bell curve of rising production and period of maximum extraction point of petroleum, after which a terminal decline sets in, this paper complicates this idea a bit more (Kennedy, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The triple crisis of debt, demand and decarbonisation: a preliminary analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on commodity-dependent developing economies

Perry

2020

IJDI

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Purpose This paper aims to offer a preliminary overview and analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on commodity-dependent developing economies (CDDEs). Using debt, decarbonisation and demand as empirical and analytical prisms to understand impacts and dynamics, the paper offers “rent space” as a theoretical tool to appreciate the changing possibilities for using resource rents for capital accumulation and expand development frontiers. It maps out the certain common features among this group of developing countries facing an increasingly adverse and uncertain situation. It offers a political economic perspective on the global dynamics and internal political situation that constrain these countries’ ability to manage the effects of this external shock that date to the 2008 crisis, and to therefore shore up an effective recovery in the coming years. Design/methodology/approach The paper draws together secondary literature and evidence from a number of sources including the World Bank, United Nations and International Monetary Fund on the empirical situation in these countries in view of COVID-19. The paper uses a thematic approach to understand how the current crisis has exposed these embedded and worsening vulnerabilities in this group of countries. Findings Results demonstrate the wide-ranging effects of COVID-19 as an existential crisis of demand in short and medium term, the explosion of debt due to actually occurring financialisation and the looming medium and long-term consequences of decarbonisation that may oblige countries to abandon exploitation of fossil fuel resources. Originality/value In the final analysis, COVID-19 has revealed a number of lingering effects of the commodity boom and global financial crisis. The increased indebtedness that resulted not only underscores the long-term unviability of commodity-based development as a strategy but also reveals new unprecedented weaknesses and challenges. Given the current configuration of global and domestic political economy dynamics, the paper shows that the “rent space” in fossil fuel exporters is particularly constrained and shrinking, compared to mineral exporters, but all showing a trend towards concentration in commodity production overall and worsening prospects for green recovery or industrial pathway.

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What if there had only been half the oil? Rewriting history to envision the consequences of peak oil

Cited by 16 publications

References 42 publications

Decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts

Decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts

Surfactant–Polymer Flooding: Influence of the Injection Scheme

The triple crisis of debt, demand and decarbonisation: a preliminary analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on commodity-dependent developing economies

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