What hindered the El Niño pattern in 2014?

Min, Qingye; Su, Jingzhi; Zhang, Renhe; Rong, Ximin

doi:10.1002/2015gl064899

Cited by 81 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Rather than a strong 2014 El Niño event occurring, as forecast, only weak warming in the key El Niño oceanic regions ( Figure 5) was observed. This forecast "bust" [112,113] caused the ENSO prediction community to critically examine the efficacy of many of the significant ocean and atmosphere system components drawn on as a source of ENSO predictability [114][115][116]. A particular challenge for ENSO based health forecasting is the so-called "spring predictability barrier" [117][118][119].…”

Section: Enso and Health Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Health: An Overview for Climate and Health Researchers

McGregor

Ebi

2018

Atmosphere

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Abstract:The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of climatic variability that exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society through alterations in climate patterns. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community, with many analysts investigating ENSO health links through considering the degree of dependency of the incidence of a range of climate diseases on the occurrence of El Niño events. Because of the mounting interest in the relationship between ENSO as a major mode of climatic variability and health, this paper presents an overview of the basic characteristics of the ENSO phenomenon and its climate impacts, discusses the use of ENSO indices in climate and health research, and outlines the present understanding of ENSO health associations. Also touched upon are ENSO-based seasonal health forecasting and the possible impacts of climate change on ENSO and the implications this holds for future assessments of ENSO health associations. The review concludes that there is still some way to go before a thorough understanding of the association between ENSO and health is achieved, with a need to move beyond analyses undertaken through a purely statistical lens, with due acknowledgement that ENSO is a complex non-canonical phenomenon, and that simple ENSO health associations should not be expected.

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Section: Enso and Health Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Health: An Overview for Climate and Health Researchers

McGregor

Ebi

2018

Atmosphere

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“…Using an ocean general circulation model, Menkes et al (2014) further showed that the SST anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific could be significantly enhanced at the end of 2014 if the strong WWBs that occurred in 1997 (McPhaden, 1999) were added to the forcing field. In addition, the enhanced trade wind associated with the SST cooling in the southeastern Pacific (Min et al, 2015) and the easterly wind surge occurring in the middle of 2014 Hu and Fedorov, 2016) were also proposed as the reasons for the unexpectedly weak 2014 El Niño.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genesis of the 2014–2016 El Niño events

Lian

Chen

Tang

2017

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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The 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the strongest El Niño events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Niño in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Niño had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts (WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Niño, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Niño events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Niño events, the 2015/2016 El Niño exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Niño to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Niño.

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“…Recently, Min et al (2015) showed that anomalous easterly winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which were induced by the negative SST anomalies in the south-eastern tropical Pacific through the WES feedback, hindered the El Niño in 2014. The anomalous easterly oceanic current forced by the easterly wind anomalies zonally advected relatively low ocean temperature westward and interrupted the Bjerknes feedback.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These studies indicate that thermodynamic coupling between the atmosphere and ocean modifies ENSO variability. Recently, Min et al (2015) showed that the anomalous easterly oceanic current, which was forced by the easterly wind anomalies associated with the SPMM, hindered the El Niño in 2014. Their study focused on the oceanic dynamic responses to wind stress anomalies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Active Role of the ITCZ and WES Feedback in Hampering the Growth of the Expected Full-Fledged El Niño in 2014

Maeda¹,

Urabe

Takemura

et al. 2016

SOLA

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We investigated features of the atmosphere and ocean to seek a possible candidate that suppressed the growth of the El Niño event in 2014. In the boreal summer-fall season, equatorially antisymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with a positive (negative) sign to the north (south) of the equator prevailed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In association with the SST anomalies, cumulus convective activity was enhanced in the region of the climatological Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Anomalous southerly surface winds flowing across the equator toward the ITCZ induced upward latent heat flux anomalies and lowered SST in the near-equatorial region. These coherent spatial patterns between SST, wind, and latent heat flux anomalies suggested that the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback sustained the suppression of the El Niño growth. A linear baroclinic model experiment indicated that the enhanced convective heating in the ITCZ also contributed to sustain the anomalous surface southerlies across the equator by the intense meridional atmospheric circulation over the equator. These results indicate that the anomalous southerlies across the equator sustained by the WES feedback and intense convective heating in the ITCZ contributed to the suppression of the El Niño growth.(Citation: Maeda, S., Y. Urabe, K. Takemura, T. Yasuda, and Y. Tanimoto, 2016: Active role of the ITCZ and WES feedback in hampering the growth of the expected full-fledged El Niño in

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What hindered the El Niño pattern in 2014?

Cited by 81 publications

References 43 publications

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Health: An Overview for Climate and Health Researchers

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Health: An Overview for Climate and Health Researchers

Genesis of the 2014–2016 El Niño events

Active Role of the ITCZ and WES Feedback in Hampering the Growth of the Expected Full-Fledged El Niño in 2014

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