Abstract:This chapter explores short-term sources of inflation forecast disagreement in nine advanced economies. Domestic versus global factors among other determinants are considered. The chapter also adapts an idea from the model confidence set approach to obtain a quasi-confidence interval for inflation forecast disagreement. Some forecasters may change their outlook, especially when data are frequently revised (e.g., the output gap). This extension is also considered. Estimates of disagreement are found to be sensi… Show more
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