What drives phenological synchrony? Warm springs advance and desynchronize flowering in oaks

Bogdziewicz, Michał; Szymkowiak, Jakub; Bonal, Raúl; Hacket‐Pain, Andrew; Espelta, Josep María; Pesendorfer, Mario B.; Grewling, Łukasz; Kasprzyk, Idalia; Belmonte, Jordina; Kluska, Katarzyna; Linares, Concepción De; Peñuelas, Josep; Fernández‐Martínez, Marcos

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108140

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The relationship between weather trends and pollen trends in the context of climate change is complex and warrants further study. Furthered, it is assumed that climate change indirectly impacts airborne pollen concentrations by disrupting their production cycle (also called mast seeding cycle), resulting in an increase in the frequency of pollen-rich years, coupled with an average increase in seasonal amounts ( 37 , 38 ). It should also be noted that the trend toward an increase in the intensity of the Fraxinus season in Luxembourg is masked (non-significant correlation coefficient) because of this high variance, showing the importance of analyzing trends using several complementary methods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Pollen Monitoring in the Benelux: Evaluation of Allergenic Pollen Levels and Temporal Variations of Pollen Seasons

Weger¹,

Bruffaerts²,

Koenders³

et al. 2021

Front. Allergy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Airborne pollen is a major cause of allergic rhinitis, affecting between 10 and 30% of the population in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg (Benelux). Allergenic pollen is produced by wind pollinating plants and released in relatively low to massive amounts. Current climate changes, in combination with increasing urbanization, are likely to affect the presence of airborne allergenic pollen with respect to exposure intensity, timing as well as duration. Detailed analysis of long-term temporal trends at supranational scale may provide more comprehensive insight into these phenomena. To this end, the Spearman correlation was used to statistically compare the temporal trends in airborne pollen concentration monitored at the aerobiological stations which gathered the longest time-series (30–44 years) in the Benelux with a focus on the allergenic pollen taxa: Alnus, Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus, Quercus, Platanus, Poaceae, and Artemisia. Most arboreal species showed an overall trend toward an increase in the annual pollen integral and peak values and an overall trend toward an earlier start and end of the pollen season, which for Betula resulted in a significant decrease in season length. For the herbaceous species (Poaceae and Artemisia), the annual pollen integral and peak values showed a decreasing trend. The season timing of Poaceae showed a trend toward earlier starts and longer seasons in all locations. In all, these results show that temporal variations in pollen levels almost always follow a common trend in the Benelux, suggesting a similar force of climate change-driven factors, especially for Betula where a clear positive correlation was found between changes in temperature and pollen release over time. However, some trends were more local-specific indicating the influence of other environmental factors, e.g., the increasing urbanization in the surroundings of these monitoring locations. The dynamics in the observed trends can impact allergic patients by increasing the severity of symptoms, upsetting the habit of timing of the season, complicating diagnosis due to overlapping pollen seasons and the emergence of new symptoms due allergens that were weak at first.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Pollen Monitoring in the Benelux: Evaluation of Allergenic Pollen Levels and Temporal Variations of Pollen Seasons

Weger¹,

Bruffaerts²,

Koenders³

et al. 2021

Front. Allergy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Temporal divergence may affect the strength of competition among plants and potentially promote coexistence among species within this community (Tiusanen et al, 2020). Moreover, an extended community‐level flowering season may result in the redistribution of flower abundance during the flowering season and changes in peak flowering time (Aldridge et al, 2011; Bogdziewicz, Szymkowiak, et al, 2020; CaraDonna et al, 2014; Høye et al, 2013). Thus, changes in community‐level phenology should be combined with measurements of floral abundance and pollination resources to explore the effects of phenological shifts on trophic interactions under future climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Chen

Collins

Zhao

et al. 2022

Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The timing of phenological events is highly sensitive to climate change, and may influence ecosystem structure and function. Although changes in flowering phenology among species under climate change have been reported widely, how species-specific shifts will affect phenological synchrony and community-level phenology patterns remains unclear. We conducted a manipulative experiment of warming and precipitation addition and reduction to explore how climate change affected flowering phenology at the species and community levels in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.We found that warming advanced the first and last flowering times differently and with no consistent shifts in flowering duration among species, resulting in the entire flowering period of species emerging earlier in the growing season.Early-flowering species were more sensitive to warming than mid-and late-flowering species, thereby reducing flowering synchrony among species and extending the community-level flowering season. However, precipitation and its interactions with warming had no significant effects on flowering phenology. Our results suggest that temperature regulates flowering phenology from the species to community levels in this alpine meadow community, yet how species shifted their flowering timing and duration in response to warming varied. This species-level divergence may reshape flowering phenology in this alpine plant community. Decreasing flowering synchrony among species and the extension of community-level flowering seasons under warming may alter future trophic interactions, with cascading consequences to community and ecosystem function.

show abstract

“…Using a site-specific moving window analysis can help pinpoint the right weather correlate and its timing (Bogdziewicz et al, 2023). While in European beech the cues change little among populations (Vacchiano et al, 2017;Bogdziewicz et al, 2023), in other species the weather correlates and underlying mechanisms can vary much more among populations (Bogdziewicz et al, 2020c;Fleurot et al, 2023). The challenge ahead lies in developing general rules that can connect local variation to a global model.…”

Section: What Is Next?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting seed production in perennial plants: identifying challenges and charting a path forward

Journé

Hacket‐Pain

Oberklammer

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Interannual variability and spatial synchrony of seed production, known as masting, have far-reaching ecological impacts including effects on forest regeneration and the population dynamics of seed consumers, predators, parasites, and diseases. Because the relative timing of management and conservation efforts in ecosystems dominated by masting species often determines their success, there is an urgent need to study masting mechanisms and develop anticipatory forecasting tools for seed production. In this study, we aim to establish seed production forecasting ("mast casts") as a new branch of the discipline. To assess the current state of the ability to model intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of masting, we evaluate the predictive capabilities of three models -foreMast, ΔT, and a sequential model based on the developmental steps of seed production - designed to predict seed production in trees using a pan-European dataset of Fagus sylvatica seed production as a case study. Our hindcasting analysis indicates that the models are moderately successful in recreating seed production dynamics, with the best-performing model achieving R2 = 0.66. The availability of high-quality data on prior seed production significantly improved the model's predictive power, with R2 = 0.78 in the sequential model, suggesting that effective seed production monitoring methods are crucial for creating reliable forecasting tools. In terms of extreme events, the models were better at predicting crop failures than bumper crops, likely because the factors preventing seed production are better understood than the processes leading to large reproductive events. To create widely applicable tools, we need models that can make forecasts over large areas with readily available data. We summarize the current challenges and provide a roadmap to help advance the discipline and encourage the further development of mast forecasting.

show abstract

What drives phenological synchrony? Warm springs advance and desynchronize flowering in oaks

Cited by 16 publications

References 54 publications

Long-Term Pollen Monitoring in the Benelux: Evaluation of Allergenic Pollen Levels and Temporal Variations of Pollen Seasons

Long-Term Pollen Monitoring in the Benelux: Evaluation of Allergenic Pollen Levels and Temporal Variations of Pollen Seasons

Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Forecasting seed production in perennial plants: identifying challenges and charting a path forward

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About