Background Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes.Methods For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T max , cumulative degree day T max , T min , cumulative degree day T min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations.Findings 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0•9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0•52, p=0•034) as were annual cumulative increases in T min (r=0•61, p=0•010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T max (r=0•53, p=0•030) and T min (r=0•48, p=0•05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0•62, p=0•008) and pollen season duration (r=0•68, p=0•003) when averaged for all 17 locations.Interpretation Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T min and T max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health-one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase.

BackgroundOutdoor pollen grain and fungal spore concentrations have been associated with severe asthma exacerbations at the population level. The specific impact of each taxon and the concomitant effect of air pollution on these symptoms have, however, still to be better characterized. This study aimed to investigate the short-term associations between ambient concentrations of various aeroallergens and hospitalizations related to asthma in the Brussels-Capital Region (Belgium), an area recording especially high rates of admissions.MethodsBased on administrative records of asthma hospitalizations and regular monitoring of 11 tree/herbaceous pollen taxa and 2 fungal spore taxa, daily time series analyses covering the 2008–2013 period were performed. Effects up to 6 days after exposure were captured by combining quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, public holidays, mean temperature and relative humidity. Effect modification by age and air pollution (PM, NO2, O3) was tested.ResultsA significant increase in asthma hospitalizations was observed for an interquartile range increase in grass (5.9%, 95% CI: 0.0, 12.0), birch (3.2%, 95% CI: 1.1, 5.3) and hornbeam (0.7%, 95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) pollen concentrations. For several taxa including grasses, an age modification effect was notable, the hospitalization risk tending to be higher in individuals younger than 60 years. Air pollutants impacted the relationships too: the risk appeared to be stronger for grass and birch pollen concentrations in case of high PM10 and O3 concentrations respectively.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that airborne grass, birch and hornbeam pollen are associated with severe asthma exacerbations in the Brussels region. These compounds appear to act in synergy with air pollution and to more specifically affect young and intermediate age groups. Most of these life-threatening events could theoretically be prevented with improved disease diagnosis/management and targeted communication actions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12940-018-0378-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman’s test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s00484-017-1457-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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