What do we know about crisis, escalation and war? A visual assessment of the International Crisis Behavior Project

James, Patrick

doi:10.1177/0738894218793135

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Crisis escalation is a central topic in international relations research (Asal and Beardsley, 2007; Brecher and Wilkenfeld, 2000; Colaresi and Thompson, 2002: 274; James, 2019; Levin-Banchik, 2018; Reed, 2000). This research can be classified into three general approaches that emphasize different crisis and crisis actor attributes when explaining violent escalation.…”

Section: Research On Crisis Escalation and Precrisis Hostilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Levin-Banchik

2020

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Why do some international crises escalate into violence while others do not? I argue that an understanding of crisis behavior necessitates awareness of the processes preceding a crisis and propose two mechanisms that link precrisis hostility with crisis violence. The population fatigue mechanism suggests that precrisis hostility interrupts the everyday life of a population, strengthening its demand for a harsher response. If leaders behave with restraint during a crisis and after the crisis hostilities resume, leaders risk facing greater dissatisfaction from their now even more fatigued population. The baseline for resolve mechanism suggests that if states are actively hostile before a crisis, they must maintain hostility during a crisis to credibly demonstrate resolve. Findings on international crises between 1918 and 2010 support the interphase relationship: a crisis escalation is significantly more likely after a hostile precrisis period. The behavior of opponents can indicate how crises might unfold even before they begin.

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Section: Research On Crisis Escalation and Precrisis Hostilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Levin-Banchik

2020

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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“…These variables focus on the context for a given set of interactions, along with the traits of the parties involved. All of these variables are quite familiar within the lexicon of the ICB Project and have been shown as significant predictors of crisis escalation in prior data analysis (Brecher, 1999;Brecher and Wilkenfeld, 1997;Brecher et al, 2000;James, 2018). Thus only a brief rationale is provided for each proposition.…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest in International Relations. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not (Asal and Beardsley, 2007;Ben-Yehuda et al, 2013a, b;Brecher et al, 2000;Gartzke and Hewitt, 2010;James, 2018). Since its inception in 1975, the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project has provided researchers with theoretical models and datasets that have facilitated a vast amount of research on causes, processes and consequences of crises in world politics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near crises in world politics: A new dataset

Iakhnis

James

2019

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

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“…It seeks a common ground to view the world from a systems perspective, including micro and macro-levels. As suggested by Reference [41] (p. 6) "systemism allows for linkages operating at macro and micro-levels, along with back and forth between them. "…”

Section: The Relevance Of Systemism For International Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The application of systemism in IS is not extensive but there are several successful examples in the areas of public policy [39], foreign policy [40] and conflict and peace [41]. These examples make systemism and their models a promissory approach with great potential for application to IS.…”

Section: The Relevance Of Systemism For International Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing a Systems Architecture Model to Study the Science, Technology and Innovation in International Studies

Viterale

2019

Systems

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The international system has changed rapidly in the last thirty years and Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) has become a new critical factor of the world order of the 21st century. The interaction between STI and international affairs has increased, as well as its social and academic interest; however, there is still a lack of new theoretical and methodological approaches that examine this global rising phenomenon. This article is predominantly epistemological and is about how interactions between STI and international relations can be methodologically examined using systems models. This article raises the need for systems science approaches to explaining complex problems in international relations. In this sense, systems science and specifically systemism, offers great potential to study complex issues within a complex social system like the international order. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to develop an original systems framework that provides a comprehensive tool for studying complex topics like STI in the world system. The result is the creation of a Systems Architecture Model that examines the interaction between STI and international affairs from a systemist perspective.

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What do we know about crisis, escalation and war? A visual assessment of the International Crisis Behavior Project

Cited by 15 publications

References 31 publications

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises

Near crises in world politics: A new dataset

Developing a Systems Architecture Model to Study the Science, Technology and Innovation in International Studies

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