Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO

Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.

doi:10.1175/jcli3457.1

Cited by 610 publications

(521 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The top 10 disasters analyzed in the study provide some evidence of a possible influence of El Niño events to produce favorable conditions to induce disasters in the Pacific coast. During El Niño, the vertical wind shear weakens in the Eastern Pacific favoring intensification (e.g., Bell and Chelliah, 2006) and the TCs tend to be longer-lived and more intense (e.g., Camargo and Sobel, 2005). Looking at the large-scale conditions that characterized the top 25 TCs providing largest rainfall, we found that 10 of the TCs occurred during El Niño, 10 during neutral conditions, and only five during La Niña.…”

Section: The Enso Phasementioning

confidence: 79%

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

Farfán¹,

Alfaro²,

Cavazos³

2013

Atmósfera

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Este estudio evalúa los impactos de los ciclones tropicales (CT) que tocaron tierra en áreas pobladas a lo largo de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. El periodo de interés abarca de 1970 a 2010 y se utiliza una base de datos internacional de desastres para identificar dichos impactos. Se registraron más de 30 eventos durante el periodo de referencia, de los cuales se examinan los 25 que acumularon mayor precipitación, así como los 10 que causaron mayores daños a la población afectada, que en estos casos varió de 20 000 a más de 800 000 habitantes. Vientos fuertes y precipitación intensa en periodos de uno a tres días se asociaron con daños materiales y pérdida de vidas humanas. Los resultados del estudio indican que las acumulaciones excesivas de lluvia y su intensidad diaria son elementos importantes vinculados con la ocurrencia de desastres en áreas densamente pobladas. Seis de los primeros 10 CT asociados con los mayores desastres ocurrieron en condiciones de El Niño y tres en condiciones neutrales; sin embargo, al examinar los 25 CT asociados con la precipitación acumulada, se observó que 10 de éstos ocurrieron en condiciones de El Niño y 10 en condiciones neutrales. Tres casos ocurridos en eventos correspondientes a El Niño (Liza en 1976, Pauline en 1997 y Lane en 2006) se documentaron con más detalle debido a que afectaron áreas con densidades poblacionales diferentes en las costas del sur y noroeste de México. ABSTRACTThis study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three Atmósfera 26(2), 163-182 (2013) 164 L. M. Farfán et al. days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006 are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.

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Section: The Enso Phasementioning

confidence: 79%

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

Farfán¹,

Alfaro²,

Cavazos³

2013

Atmósfera

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“…Intraseaonal variability was enhanced during the developing summer of El Niñ o year (Teng and Wang 2003). Typhoon activity and rainfall associated with typhoon increase during the developing summer of El Niñ o year (Camargo 2005;Kubota and Wang 2009). Due to the activated convection, southerly wind blows stronger toward the western North Pacific monsoon region.…”

Section: Possible Mechanisms For Interannual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Zonal wind shear between equatorial and o¤-equatorial regions of the western North Pacific becomes larger. Tropical cyclones are more active and rainfall associated with typhoons increases over the western North Pacific region during the El Niñ o developing summer (Camargo 2005;Kubota and Wang 2009). When the Philippine Sea anticyclone is formed from autumn, convection is suppressed over the o¤-equatorial region (Wang and Zhang 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual Rainfall Variability over the Eastern Maritime Continent

Kubota

Shirooka

Hamada

et al. 2011

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The authors investigate the interannual rainfall variability over the eastern maritime continent using station rainfall data in the Republic of Palau during 1923 and Eastern Indonesia during 1973-2008. Two possible mechanisms are proposed to explain the interannual rainfall variability associated with the El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation over the surrounding region of the Banda and Arafura seas.During the El Niñ o developing year, rainfall starts to decrease, first in region close to the equator in summer than in o¤-equatorial region in autumn, such as in mainland Palau. Eastern Indonesia has a dry season during boreal summer in general, and the dry season becomes a significantly drier condition during El Niñ o years. The start of increasing rainfall is delayed. Cloud data show a convection-suppressed region from the east coast of the Kalimantan to the west coast of the New Guinea during July to November of El Niñ o years.One of the mechanisms for these changes is the air-sea interaction over the Banda and Arafura seas. Intensification of seasonal southerly wind associated with the western North Pacific monsoon decreases sea-surface temperature over the Banda and Arafura seas, and convection is more suppressed during El Niñ o years than other years. Another mechanism is the subsidence over the Banda and Arafura seas during the pre-monsoon of the Australian summer monsoon. Land-ocean thermal contrast between Australia and its surrounding seas is intensified during El Niñ o years. Shallow thermal convection produces subsidence over the Banda and Arafura seas, and extremely dry condition spreads over the surrounding region in October during El Niñ o years.

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“…Further studies by Klotzbach (2006) and Goldenberg et al (2001) suggest that changes in long-term Atlantic hurricane activity are more influenced by natural variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), than by anthropogenic changes. In addition to the internal variability of the AMO and the SST rise due to global warming, other climatic features that vary on faster time-scales, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Elsner et al, 2000), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (Shapiro, 1982;Gray, 1984), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Bove et al, 1998;Camargo and Sobel, 2005) and circulation changes over the Atlantic (Zehr, 1992;DeMaria et al, 1993; have also been shown to be related to hurricane activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this case, then, the underlying mean number of landfalls could be represented purely as a constant fraction of the total number of Atlantic hurricanes. However, if we delve deeper into the issue and look at individual storms it is clear that environmental factors influence where the Atlantic storms go and hence the steering of any particular storm towards land (Bove et al, 1998;Camargo and Sobel, 2005). What is less understood is whether these environmental factors should be treated as noise on interannual timescales or whether the probability of landfall varies in concert with the interannual basin activity such that there is no consistent relationship between the number of basin and landfalling storms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A relationship between all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make landfall in the USA

Coughlin¹,

Bellone²,

Laepple³

et al. 2009

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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ABSTRACT:The interannual prediction of the number of hurricanes to strike the US coastline is of vital interest to those who live on the coast, those who insure property along the coast and policy makers who make decisions about infrastructure and mitigation measures. Here it is shown that these predictions can be made more accurate when information about the total number of Atlantic Basin hurricanes is considered. The proportion of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall in the USA is a measure of the relationship between landfalling and basin hurricane numbers. In order to use basin numbers to help make predictions of landfalling numbers, we must first investigate the nature of this relationship. Here we run a number of statistical tests and find that there is a significant change in the relative proportion of Atlantic hurricanes that hit the US coastline between the first and second halves of the 20th century. This difference is ostensibly due to the lack of basin observations in the earlier period. However, after 1948, the proportion of Atlantic hurricanes that hit the US coast shows no evidence of change. By assuming that the proportion is constant, we are able to then use information about the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin and make more accurate estimates of landfalling hurricane activity.

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Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO

Cited by 610 publications

References 33 publications

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

Interannual Rainfall Variability over the Eastern Maritime Continent

A relationship between all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make landfall in the USA

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