Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

Douville, Hervé; Raghavan, K.; Renwick, James; Allan, R. R.; Arias, Paola A.; Barlow, Mathew; Cerezo‐Mota, Ruth; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gan, Thian Yew; Gergis, Jo�lle; Jiang, Dabang; Khan, Afsheen Maryam Sardar; Pokam, Wilfried M.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Zolina, Olga

doi:10.1017/9781009157896.013

Cited by 199 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 1,336 publications

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“…Earth's global average near-surface air temperature in 2011-2020 has increased by 1.1 0 C (0.9 -1.3 0 C) since the pre-industrial period due to anthropogenic forcings (1), leading to an increase in heat extremes on a global scale (2). However, some regions have experienced disproportionate changes in heat extremes in recent decades -such as Western Europe (WEU), which has experienced a remarkable increase of >3 0 C in the annual hottest five-day period (Tx5d) since 1951, thus outpacing global mean temperature change (Fig 1;Fig S1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest US and amplified over Western Europe

Singh,

Sippel,

Fischer

2023

Preprint

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Heat extremes have intensified globally in recent decades, but the Midwest United States (MUS) experiences a weak cooling trend while Western Europe (WEU) shows remarkable warming trends. We show that atmospheric circulation greatly amplify warming in WEU and weaken it in the MUS. Circulation-induced trends lead to ~1°C cooling in MUS since 1979, reversing the weak thermodynamic warming effects. While in WEU, they cause ~1°C warming, contributing to one third of observed trends. The observed circulation- and thermodynamic-induced trends are outside the multi-model ensemble range for the MUS and at the edge of the range for WEU. This explains why the total observed trends in these regions are at the very low and high end of the model range. To what extent the circulation-induced trends are forced or unforced remains a key open question to constrain future projections. If circulation-induced trends are forced, WEU may experience further intensified heat extremes, while if they result from unforced internal variability, WEU warming would slow and MUS may experience rapidly intensifying heat extremes in the coming decades.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest US and amplified over Western Europe

Singh,

Sippel,

Fischer

2023

Preprint

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“…Overwhelming evidence indicates anthropogenic climate change is significantly changing temperature and weather patterns, leading to increases in number and severity of extreme weather events. The IPCC highlight compound events especially, in which conditions become both hotter and drier (IPCC, 2021). This can lead to drought periods, which drive biodiversity loss and can increase competition, vulnerability to pathogens, habitat fragmentation and phenological changes (IPBES, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected increases in extreme drought frequency and duration by 2040 affect specialist habitats and species in Scotland

Kirkpatrick Baird,

Spray,

Hall

et al. 2023

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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Climate‐driven increases in drought occurrence are an overlooked risk in temperate climates, which may be less resilient to water scarcity than arid habitats. Scotland provides an example of a temperate oceanic climate in which drought risk is understudied, but could have substantial ecological impacts, particularly in combination with additional stressors. We modelled changes to risk of extreme drought occurrence in Scotland, and considered potential impacts of these changes on two key habitats, ombrotrophic (precipitation fed) wetlands and temperate rainforest. Using temperature and precipitation data from the UK Climate Projections 2018 and the drought index Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index, we calculated and mapped likely changes in extreme drought for the near future (2021–2040) in comparison to a baseline (1981–2001). We found likelihood of extreme drought events increased from an average of one event every 20 years in the baseline period, to one event every 3 years by 2040. Typical events were projected to be up to 2–3 months longer, with an average of 11 extra drought months per decade. Increases were projected throughout the country, but the effect was most severe in the east, and during autumn. Ombrotrophic wetlands have some level of adaptive resilience to drought, but are considered at high risk as several key sites are in drought hotspot areas. In contrast, Scotland's temperate rainforest is located in lower risk areas, but is typically less drought resilient. Potential impacts on these habitats include reductions in ecosystem services including carbon capture, reduced breeding success for multiple taxa and increased competition among plant communities, which threatens drought‐sensitive species. These projections suggest that climate‐driven drought risk is a significant and imminent threat, even in wet climates. In Scotland, the results can direct mitigation and management actions to areas likely to be at greatest risk, as well as informing conservation interventions that can cope with drought. Additionally, other areas with a temperate oceanic climate may be at risk of extreme drought and could experience similar consequences. Therefore, these results have implications both for facilitating improved resilience to extreme drought in Scotland and for potentially overlooked impacts of drought in oceanic climates elsewhere.

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“…The North Central grasslands continue to face numerous threats, including conversion to cropland (Lark, 2020;WWF, 2020WWF, , 2021; residential, commercial, and energy development (Abrams et al, 2012;Ott et al, 2021;Reeves et al, 2018); degradation resulting from the encroachment of invasive species (Baldwin et al, 2019;Ratajczak et al, 2012;Stevens et al, 2017;Twidwell et al, 2021); overgrazing (CPW, 2015;Dyke et al, 2015;MFWP, 2015;Rohweder, 2015;WGFD, 2017); and disruption of the historical disturbance regime (Donovan et al, 2020;Twidwell et al, 2019). Climate change presents new threats and opportunities for the North Central grasslands in the form of increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation, and extreme events, among others (Briggs et al, 2005;Conant et al, 2018;Easterling et al, 2017;Garbrecht et al, 2004;Kloesel et al, 2018;Mufson et al, 2019;Seneviratne et al, 2021;Vose et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2021). Climate change is also interacting with and exacerbating other existing stressors and threats (Conant et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seventy questions of importance to the conservation of the North Central grasslands of the United States in a changing climate

Miller Hesed,

Yocum,

Cross

et al. 2023

Conservat Sci and Prac

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Successful conservation of ecosystems in a changing climate requires actionable research that directly supports the rethinking and revising of management approaches to address changing risks and opportunities. As an important first step toward actionable research, we reviewed and synthesized grassland management‐related documents to identify broadly shared questions that, if answered, would help to support collective conservation of the grasslands in the northern Great Plains of the United States in a changing climate. A Management Priorities Working Group reviewed 183 grassland‐relevant management documents and identified 70 questions. Feedback was iteratively provided by a Climate and Ecology Working Group, an Advisory Committee, and representatives from grassland management agencies and organizations. The identified questions generally fall under 15 topics: land conversion; restoration; disturbance regimes; woody encroachment; herbaceous invasives; grazing; water quality, quantity, and availability; animal species; private land; public understanding; legal and policy changes; economic incentives; coordination across management entities; accessibility of science and tools; and novel ways of thinking. These questions can inform a research agenda for researchers looking to conduct actionable science in the Great Plains grassland ecosystems. Both the approach and the questions presented here can also be adapted and applied in other regions and ecosystems.

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Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

Cited by 199 publications

References 1,336 publications

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest US and amplified over Western Europe

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest US and amplified over Western Europe

Projected increases in extreme drought frequency and duration by 2040 affect specialist habitats and species in Scotland

Seventy questions of importance to the conservation of the North Central grasslands of the United States in a changing climate

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