Waxing and Waning: Periods of Intermittency in Criminal Careers

Abstract

Objectives Focusing on intermittency as a specific criminal career dimension, the present study explores the distribution of intermittency as it occurs across individuals and in the course of the criminal career. Methods Using conviction data on repeat offenders (N = 3716) from the Criminal Career and Life-Course Study (CCLS), overall patterns of intermittency (measured as conviction-free intervals between subsequent convictions) are analyzed. Given different levels of offending before and after conviction-free periods, we examine the length of the conviction-free interval and the extent to which offending in terms of frequency and specialization changes after a conviction-free period. Results On average, repeat offenders show relatively short intermittency periods. However, conviction-free intervals tend to increase towards the end of the criminal career regardless of offending frequency. A substantial minority of offenders has a criminal career characterized by more than one spell of frequent offending separated by an extended period of non-offending. As the intermittency period increases, offending specialization across offending periods declines, but not for all types of offenses. Conclusions This study shows that even after committing several offenses, some offenders experience a prolonged conviction-free interval only to resume offending at a non-trivial rate. Due to the length of their conviction-free interval, these offenders would erroneously have been labeled desisters in many prior studies.

The Meaning of “Intermittency” in Criminal Careers

“…In criminal career research, the persons studied in one age range should not be different from those studied in each other age range. These limitations, however, pale into insignificance compared with our main argument, namely that Van Koppen et al [9] have not studied "intermittency" in criminal careers, in the usually accepted meaning of the term. Their paper raises important questions about criminal careers, but confuses "intermittency" (i.e zero-rate intervals) with time intervals between convictions which occur naturally during a continuous criminal career.…”

“…To distinguish intermittency from random within-career fluctuations, it is desirable to work with a probabilistic model. In this respect, the paper of Van Koppen et al [9] falls short.…”

“…Returning to Van Koppen et al [9], the aggregate data that they present does not allow the specification of a probabilistic model that reflects the career dynamics within the population studied. However, it is possible to make some general observations.…”

“…Van Koppen et al [9] assert that observed convictions reflect an underlying "criminal inclination" that varies over time. They should specify this model explicitly, estimate the parameters, and investigate how well it fits their data compared to the much simpler constant-lambda models.…”

Exploring the Effects of Mental Health Needs on Intermittency Among Justice-Involved Youth

“…In his seminal work, Matza (1964) noted that individuals who engage in delinquent behavior are “casually, intermittently, and transiently immersed in a pattern of illegal action” (p. 28), suggesting that criminal activity entails stops and starts over a criminal career. Observations of variable temporary suspensions from criminal activity within a criminal career challenge conventional ways of conceptualizing desistance (Carlsson, 2012; van Koppen et al, 2020). A change from offending to permanent nonoffending is central to desistance (Bushway et al, 2001).…”