Wave heights in the 21<sup>st</sup> century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model

Khon, Vyacheslav; Мохов, И. И.; Pogarskiy, F. A.; Babanin, Alexander V.; Dethloff, Klaus; Rinke, Annette; Matthes, Heidrun

doi:10.1002/2014gl059847

Cited by 76 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(34 reference statements)

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“…The combined use of models and satellite observations proves to be a robust way of monitoring and describing the climate. As the Arctic continues to change, the results presented here can be used as a basis for future climate studies or projections such as those presented by Khon et al (2014) or Dobrynin et al (2012). Our observed changes in the wave field are expected to be influencing the coastlines, ecosystem, and sea ice melt (e.g., Overeem et al, 2011;Tremblay et al, 2008;Popova et al, 2010;Davis et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

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Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends

2016

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Abstract. Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the icefree ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992-2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and windsea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave-ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…The wave response to the changing sea ice through the 21st century is complex, with a mix of influences from wind, sea ice, and climate variability (Khon et al, 2014). In the majority of the Arctic, wave heights are increasing.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends

2016

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“…The challenge in creating models capable of forecast and climate predictions is in the highly coupled nature of the air‐sea‐ice‐wave processes (e.g., Khon et al, ). Although this program has produced many improvements in fundamental understanding of the coupled processes and the model representation thereof, there is still a strong need to develop better model coupling.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Ackley²,

et al. 2018

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A large collaborative program has studied the coupled air‐ice‐ocean‐wave processes occurring in the Arctic during the autumn ice advance. The program included a field campaign in the western Arctic during the autumn of 2015, with in situ data collection and both aerial and satellite remote sensing. Many of the analyses have focused on using and improving forecast models. Summarizing and synthesizing the results from a series of separate papers, the overall view is of an Arctic shifting to a more seasonal system. The dramatic increase in open water extent and duration in the autumn means that large surface waves and significant surface heat fluxes are now common. When refreezing finally does occur, it is a highly variable process in space and time. Wind and wave events drive episodic advances and retreats of the ice edge, with associated variations in sea ice formation types (e.g., pancakes, nilas). This variability becomes imprinted on the winter ice cover, which in turn affects the melt season the following year.

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“…The need for long, reliable time series of marine near-surface winds U 10 and significant wave height H s is increasing as climate projections require a baseline climatology against which to be compared, and even more so if dynamical models of the sea state are to be included in future coupled climate scenarios (Cavaleri et al 2012;Dobrynin et al 2012;Sterl et al 2012;Hemer et al 2013;Khon et al 2014). There are also more immediate needs for reliable time series of past wind and wave climate, such as estimates of return values in areas without observational records (Caires and Sterl 2005;Aarnes et al 2012;Breivik et al 2013Breivik et al , 2014 or decadal trends in wind and wave parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine Wind and Wave Height Trends at Different ERA-Interim Forecast Ranges

et al. 2015

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Trends in marine wind speed and significant wave height are investigated using the global reanalysis ERAInterim over the period 1979-2012, based on monthly-mean and monthly-maximum data. Besides the traditional reanalysis, the authors include trends obtained at different forecast range, available up to 10 days ahead. Any model biases that are corrected differently over time are likely to introduce spurious trends of variable magnitude. However, at increased forecast range the model tends to relax, being less affected by assimilation. Still, there is a trade-off between removing the impact of data assimilation at longer forecast range and getting a lower level of uncertainty in the predictions at shorter forecast range. Because of the sheer amount of assimilations made in ERA-Interim, directly and indirectly affecting the data, it is difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish effects imposed by all updates. Here, special emphasis is put on the introduction of wave altimeter data in August 1991, the only type of data directly affecting the wave field. From this, it is shown that areas of higher model bias introduce quite different trends depending on forecast range, most apparent in the North Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific. Results are compared with 23 in situ measurements, Envisat altimeter winds, and two stand-alone ECMWF operational wave model (EC-WAM) runs with and without wave altimeter assimilation. Here, the 48-h forecast is suggested to be a better candidate for trend estimates of wave height, mainly due to the step change imposed by altimeter observations. Even though wind speed seems less affected by undesirable step changes, the authors believe that the 24-48-h forecast more effectively filters out any unwanted effects.

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Wave heights in the 21^st century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model

Cited by 76 publications

References 32 publications

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Marine Wind and Wave Height Trends at Different ERA-Interim Forecast Ranges

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Wave heights in the 21st century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model

Cited by 76 publications

References 32 publications

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends

Overview of the Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics Program

Marine Wind and Wave Height Trends at Different ERA-Interim Forecast Ranges

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Wave heights in the 21^st century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model